Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)

[bzusa]

back to NTI
Here’s my take on the distribution for q3 >$1, but depends on the cost of the Q3 unplanned maintenance, $$ set aside for the cash reserve, and how much total PADD production remains off-line. I wonder how much the non-cash loss on held inventory will be as crude prices have fallen a bit betweem Q2 and Q3 (10% at least).
That will impact the earnings report.
Q4 looks worse then Q3, even with no downtime, as the cs and Bakken/WTI differential decline. On the plus side, the WCS/WTI differential is high and growing (poor Alberta).
I assume that NTI is still using as much WCS as they can.

Interesting news in the refining report week ending 10/16
“ongoing downtime in PADD 2, with over 500MBbl/d to remain offline into November” --- Good
Crack Spreads PADD 2 Chicago 2:2:1
1.5% 3qtr increase over q2 in that PADD 2 CS ---Q3-Good; Q4-Bad
4Q14 $19.93
1Q15 $18.81
2Q15 $21.87
3Q15 $22.29
QTD 15 $18.41
10% loss in NTI output in Q3 –---- Very bad
2.5% decline Bakken/WTI differential in Q3 (Q4-50% decline so far). Bad; Q4-Very bad
27% decline in WCS/WTI y/y ----- Very good