Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Vladimir Putin Plunges Into a Caldron in Syria: Saving Assad

By ANNE BARNARD and NEIL MacFARQUHAROCT. 1, 2015

"Iran's Rouhani: Assad gov't in Syria 'can't be weakened'"

.. well, sir, Assad's army is demoralized and getting smaller .. he only controls some 20% of Syria .. Putin's mission ..

“Russia’s goal is to defend Assad; whoever is against him is a destabilizing factor,” said Aleksei Makarkin, the deputy head of the
Center for Political Technologies, in Moscow. “Russia wants Assad to get engaged in a political settlement from a position of strength.”

Yet to restore Mr. Assad to full control of Syria or, for that matter, to stitch Syria back together without putting troops on the
ground, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will have to accomplish what no other outside power has dared attempt.

[...]

...the glow of early Russian successes will almost certainly fade

[...]

In a country that is 80 percent Sunni, he was also relying increasingly on Shiite fighters from Iran
and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia group, injecting a sectarian edge into an already vicious conflict.

[...]

Lebanese news media even reported Thursday that Hezbollah could soon be participating in a major ground attack in northern Syria, suggesting
there were plans for an assault to roll back some insurgent gains. There were also unconfirmed reports that new Iranian troops were entering Syria.

But history suggests that it will be hard for Russia to bring about a purely military resolution. The United States, with tens of thousands of troops and virtually unlimited
firepower, could not subdue insurgents in Iraq or Afghanistan. And with airstrikes alone, the American-led coalition against the Islamic State has made little headway.

Russia remembers its own disastrous battle with Islamist insurgents — American-backed groups that over time spawned Al Qaeda — in the 1980s in Afghanistan.

[...]

The Russian president may not even be looking for victory. “He wants to be engaged in a serious conversation that Russia is playing a role there that is
good,” said Konstantin von Eggert, a political commentator on Kommersant FM radio. Until then, Mr. von Eggert said, “ attacks on the Islamic State can wait.”

With his forces on the ground, Mr. von Eggert said, Mr. Putin can now bide his time and wait for the
United States to come around to joining him — if not under the Obama administration then the next one.

“You cannot disregard him, because he has a military presence there,” Mr. von Eggert said. “It is the reality
you cannot ignore. It is real guys with real weaponry on the ground in Syria that the Americans do not have.”

It is not so much Mr. Assad himself that Mr. Putin wants to defend, he added, as the principle that leaders at home should be allowed to do what they want.

“By being in Latakia and Tartus they are defending Moscow,” Mr. von Eggert said. “They are defending the principle that any government can do what it wants with its own people.”

[...] .. to the end ..

“The fact is, Russia is responding to a situation inside the Middle East from a position of weakness. Their influence in that region of the world is waning,” Mr. Earnest said, adding that Russia is “trying to salvage what’s left of a deteriorating situation inside of Syria.”

Then again, as with the deal Mr. Putin engineered to rid Syria of its chemical weapons, he might manage to put together a peace deal that Mr. Obama finds he cannot refuse.

Mr. Putin’s task is made somewhat easier by the fact that he enjoys high ratings at home and does not have to worry much about public opinion when it comes to a distant war.

“Putin does not care about public opinion at home because any story can be sold internally via the television,” said Orkhan Dzhemal, a prominent journalist who specializes in the Middle East. “In addition, most Russians don’t care whom we are fighting against in Syria, ISIS or not ISIS.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/02/world/middleeast/vladimir-putin-plunges-into-a-cauldron-saving-assad.html?_r=0

See also:

Russians In Syria Building A2/AD ‘Bubble’
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117381488

Peg -- not too difficult to see the other way things'll very likely go if we get a 'bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran'-er Teaflublican prez in
there (in particular given the highly likely continued wingbutt-bagnut-teabuggerer control of both sides of Congress in such a scenario)

folks think things are a mess over there now? -- that our deficits and debt are totally out of control, and our economy doing shittily,
now? -- toss in some big tax cuts more than enough to rocket the deficits and debt and pull the rug out from under the federal
government all by themselves, and voilà! Dubya Disaster 2.0., Un-Misunderestimatably WAY Bigger and Badder Than the Original! -- . .
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117415965

...this bit of a Bloomberg article ..

For some in the White House, the priority is to enlist more countries to fight against the Islamic State, and they fear making the relationship with Russia any more heated. They are seriously considering
accepting the Russian buildup as a fait accompli, and then working with Moscow to coordinate U.S. and Russian strikes in Northern Syria, where the U.S.-led coalition operates every day.

For many in the Obama administration, especially those who work on Syria, the idea of acquiescing to Russian participation in the fighting is akin to admitting that the drive
to oust Assad has failed. Plus, they fear Russia will attack Syrian opposition groups that are fighting against Assad, using the war against the Islamic State as a cover.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-10/russia-s-syrian-air-base-has-u-s-scrambling-for-a-plan
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117409815