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Hurricane Joaquin still Category 4, but threat to U.S. East Coast is easing

MARKETWATCH 12:15 PM ET 10/2/2015

Even without a direct impact, Joaquin is expected to cause heavy rain and flooding

Hurricane Joaquin was still a powerful Category 4 storm Friday as it churned over the central Bahamas, but the threat of a direct hit to the U.S. East Coast was easing, according to the National Hurricane Center.

After several days of uncertainty with computer models showing different paths for the storm, there was "better agreement" that Joaquin would move northeastward for the next 48 hours and then accelerate northward, the NHC said in its 11 a.m. advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021453.shtml?).

After that, the models diverge slightly, but suggest the storm will trend west and remain offshore of the U.S. East Coast as it moves from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states.

"The threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing," said an earlier advisory. "However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane."

Joaquin's path has been difficult to pin down because of an unusual range of atmospheric conditions, which include a cold front near the East Coast, the remains of Tropical Storm Ida, a strong bubble of high pressure over the North Atlantic, and an area of low pressure expected in the southeastern U.S. in the coming days, the Weather Channel (http:// www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-joaquin-atlantic-east-coast-2015) reported.

Don't miss:Here's how Hurricane Joaquin could end up sinking oil prices (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how- hurricane-joaquin-could-end-up-sinking-oil-prices-2015-10-01)

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 miles an hour Friday and was creating dangerous conditions in the central Bahamas with storm surge flooding and heavy rain.

At least five U.S. states (http://www.wsj.com/articles/AP1297b9a75a6b4dd2a73c5536a910f171) -- New Jersey (http:// nj.gov/governor/news/news/552015/approved/20151001a.html), North Carolina, South Carolina, Maryland and Virginia -- had declared a state of emergency in preparation for the storm. New Jersey was hardest hit by superstorm Sandy in 2012, and many coastal communities there are still in the process of rebuilding.

"Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely," said the NHC.

-Ciara Linnane; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

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