Your analysis is seriously flawed - here are a few takeaways:
Since OWOO has likely done one million in sales this year online, it might be reasonable to assume another $8million in sales this holiday.
First, OWOO has only done $1572 in sales (primarily online, but presumably also includes HEB, Fiesta sales) for the 1st 6 months of the year - notably those sales were at a loss after cost of sales.
Secondly, the "million in sales" factors in the announcement that OWOO has received $850k in purchase orders (mostly attributed to Walmart). There is no evidence they have reached $1 million in sales, aside from Trent boasting he had made the same at a time early in the 2nd quarter (see above sales of only $1572 which contradicts that claim).
OWOO will not make anywhere near $8 million - but the $1 million would seemingly be in their grasp when combined with the aforementioned $850k purchase order they had in hand.
The ($830k) product is already shipped to Walmart - you are presuming they sell out well in advance of the holidays AND Walmart needs an 10 fold increase in product AND the company can replenish (from China) the dolls in time to hit store shelves - you are clearly stretching at this point.
The "Oprah" factor that keeps re-appearing here is just a "wish" at this point. From the conference call it was a "maybe" - I think until (if) it happens, this is just another stretch (hype). The conference call indicated it may or may not come to fruition.
"We could see over $50million in sale this year!" - not likely...not even close. More importantly, this has never been about the dolls, but if it were, what gross margin would you expect on $1 million in sales, considering the company has yet to make a profit for ANY of the dolls sold to date?? Even if they turn in a modest margin, what about all of the Interest Expense, G&A, Convertible Notes, Lawsuit Judgments/settlements, etc...??
