SCND is somewhat interesting. Here is what I have so far.
The Catalyst Research backlog is impressive at $2,570,400. However, 90% of that backlog is for one large Chinese order and likely isn't sustainable. The backlog figures out to $642,600 on average per quarter for each of the next four quarters. Obviously, it will not be recognized equally in each quarter.
In fiscal 2015 they had $2,315,900 in revenue for the Catalyst Research division. Backlog going into fiscal 2015 was $453,000. Given the above, I'm going to estimate Catalyst Research revenue in fiscal 2016 of $4.4M.
The Benchtop sales are a bit hard to figure. In the fiscal Q3'15 10-Q they indicated that they had an unusual backlog of $300K in this segment. They further added color stating: " Although typically there is no significant backlog of orders for the Benchtop Laboratory Equipment Operations, due to production delays and increased number of orders during the period, the Company had a backlog of such products of approximately $300,000 as of March 31, 2015, all of which has been fulfilled as of the date of this report." This is the reason for the higher earnings in Q4 and also I'm sure one reason why they didn't break out Q4 results. Benchtop sales have been a bit higher in each of the last two quarters. They seem unusually high so I'm going to stick with repeating $5.4M as they did in 2015. One important thing to note is that 2015 Benchtop Revenue was higher because of an acquisition.
Given the above, I'm going to go with the following model for fiscal 2016:
Benchtop Revenue = $5.4M
Catalyst Research Revenue = $4.4M
Bio-processing Systems Revenue = $0.15M
Total Revenue = $9.815M
GM = 40%
Op. Ex. = $3.4M
Tax rate = 24% (what they paid when they were profitable in 2013)
Share count = 1.48M
Diluted EPS = $0.27/share
GM is a pretty big variable in the above equation. It is possible that GM is as high as say 43% or maybe as low as 38% which could have a substantial impact on my estimate. Also, I'm not sure how the higher mix of Catalyst Research Revenue will impact GM.
Also, if they can keep benchtop sales at $1.5M/quarter, there is some upside there.
I have no idea on the timing of the Catalyst Backlog. It could be back end loaded or front end loaded for the year.
No Position.
Thoughts?
