They can potentially refinance some of the local bank repayments to push back the maturities of the loans, but that won't change the outlook much and is only kicking the can down the road. On the 2017 bonds, nothing is negotiable. They need to post their interest payment son time, or will be forced into bankruptcy by the creditors for breaching their covenants.
I did take every oz of production into account though, not sure what you mean there. I assumed 220,000. I don't think that is being pessimistic. If you think BAA will produce 240,000-250,000 oz, then the situation is a little better, sure, but I think those assumptions would be too optimistic, and unattainable should there be any hiccup in production at either mine throughout the year. We shall see.
Good luck.
