Road Map of market forest
From September 2015 the 4 years old channel has been compromised. It's not yet totally broken in spite of trading so low bellow it, but should get there. If SPY doesn't break it and reach the top channel line which with QE is possible, then it will be revived. If it breaks before that then it's done with.
A new channel of lower speed may be formed, but the new speed will be slower which in itself means down risk elevated.
Let's try to trade this nonsense manipulated market using what we can.
Here's a Daily chart for guidance. It is a simplified version from what I use, but careful so we can see the forest. For better view click 2 times on chart to magnify it (to max). The chart is live. I don't need to annotate the chart notes all the time as support/resistance are often good for periods of time, but is good to check periodically before using if/when/what annotations on the chart was updated.
There are only 3 tools you should be really concerned here:
(green), 2. SMA200
(gray), 3. SlowStochastics 10,5 (I added the standard 5
for reference as well)
Beside that you have formations/shapes, and cycles.
Please note, this chart is loaded with volume INSIDE the candle. The a bigger volume will inflate a candle, while a small volume will make a candle small/er, sometimes real small. It is a great way to have a nice feel about the market action. Almost in any occasions when SPY struggled with small candles it was a matter of time till collapse (i.e. Nov 2014 and end of Dec 2014)
One problem is that in the morning because the volume is small the last candle is nearly nonexistent/invisible. You'd have to use a reg chart to see it at that time. Also 2 very small volume days near each other may appear as one.
Otherwise a great chart, the advantage outweigh the disadvantage by a lot.