Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

INCY:

As I commented. I got in INCY years ago, at $ 7s. Is my best ROI stock and for me is dificult to sell. Nevertheless I considered to sell it at $130 but I didnt. I am still debating on what to do. Any thoughts and comments wellcome.

At the least, I hope you're playing with house money by now.

I've taken an approach where I unload 10% at various market cap milestones.

I think their investigational oncology compounds are in a tough marketplace, so if a significant part of your ideal valuation places a high number on these... I would lower it. IDO may become a tweener of a drug, and their PI3K is in a crowded field with no significant differentiating characteristic yet. Ruxolitinib in cancers such as pancreatic is a long shot.

The counterpoint is their revenue stream is underappreciated, imo. Myelofibrosis / PV have become solid money makers, and I think it fair to begin assuming some baricitinib revenues by 2017.

Barring any material change in news, if you get to another chance to unload a percentage in the 120-130 area, I would take it. Near term risks to the share price include a disappointing result in RA-BEAM, and any early news of futility in the Janus-1 trial.