Sarissa Resources Inc (SRSR)

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In SRSRs case they have failed at least 5 times. so we are using a 6 sided die. not a coin 1 of those 6 is a win. The other 5 are a loss. So there is a 85% chance of failure.

Good reply. But you made a mistake in your reasoning. In your example Sarissa has failed five times and so we can represent our chances of current success as a single state on a six sided dice. If we toss that state this time we succeed. I can buy that. But 85% chance of failure treats each toss as an independent event when, in truth, they are mutually exclusive events. Say 3 succeeds and all other numbers fail. We have rolled five times and not gotten a 3. Because the events are mutually exclusive there is a 1-(5/6)^n chance that we will get a 3 after n rolls. If you work that out you will find that according to your mathematical metaphor Dan has a 66.5% chance of SUCCESS, not a 85% chance of failure.