Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

Jeff4iam4, in principle you are correct but in this specific case we have an idea of what these clinical trials are.

I don't think the CT with AstraZeneca or the PI with Bavi+Opdivo are going to be very expensive. If CSM had a cap of 600K$ in its contract then the bill of the CRO for 121 patients in 2nd ln NSCLC PII must have been in that order. there were some other companies involved for the randomizing for instance and the unbinding. The major cost will probably have been Docetaxel. The hospital treatment and some preparation. So this is, IMO because i am not really sure, certainly not a 10Mil$ cost.

AZ is a PI, where AZ delivers the anti-PD-L1.

However, for the Bav+Opdivo we don't really know where the Opdivo comes from, or better who pays for it. And at this moment i would say PPHM because we have no indication of BMY being involved. Luckily it is also a PI.

But the big enchilada, to use golfho's colourful terminology, will be the Breast PII/PIII. It don't see a PIII with 120 patients. Probably we are talking at least 300 if not more. From SUNRISE we know it costed 100K$ per patient and since we have no sign that the SOC vendors participate i think this will be about the price per patient for the Breast patients.

CK told us that when the SOC is used there is some payback (i forgot exactly what it was again, maybe MD can repeat that because he understood it) that may lower the cost, but that would also have been the case for SUNRISE because Docetaxel is the SOC for 2nd ln NSCLC.

So you see Jeff before you know you are talking about 30-50Mil$ on top of normal operations and whatever is still to be paid for the other ongoing trials. OK, Avid can smooth things but if PPHM uses its last 50Mil shelf shares on the 3 above clinical trials then the shelf is EMPTY.

I don't know about you, but an empty shelf isn't exactly making me feel at ease. I know and remember what that shelf did for us in Sept 2012 and up. Without it......

So that and because PPHM never used the ATM when there was no need and always invested it in pipelines and IP with high leverage i have no more problem with the 175Mil new shelf. I have to admit that it took me some time and some more over-thinking as usual before I found peace in accepting that it was the right thing.