Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[blauboad]

The shortfall news has had me mulling over my position lately...

For one, Opteron success or failure has *nothing* to do with at least 90% of the revenue shortfall, probably 100%. AMD has stated repeatedly that Opteron is "gravy" on top of revenue forecasts (which I guess are the "mashed potatoes"). Even if they are counting on it in revenue forecasts, the total does not add up to anything near 100mil. I think Sgolds summed up the possible reasons for the shortfall perfectly. The "flash shortage" was the first SARS victim, it seems.

As for the alleged mobo shortage, I remember for a while after the Opteron's release that it was possible for enthusiasts to purchase Opteron chips from places like Newegg, but there were absolutely no motherboards available for the consumer/retail market. I'm sure system makers had no problems, as they deal directly with the manufacturers. However, there was alot of complaining about this on the AMD fan sites, and that's the only thing like a MB shortage that I'm aware of.

Although the shortfall makes me queasy, I think it would be foolish to dump AMD shares now considering the strength it has shown lately. I'm in this stock because I like the AMD64 strategy, and the revenue shortfall is no disproof of that thesis--unless it makes them financially incapable of carrying it out. More important than revenue right now is whether they have actually gotten their costs down to the promised levels. That will allow them to really prosper if the AMD64 strategy pays off.