Yeah I know what you mean. I'm a bit torn on GLGI right now. I've been trying to take a clean look at it recently without the cloud of someone who's been posting about it and first bought at ~$0.50.
As far as AB is concerned I don't think the length of time is an indicator of not having a contract. If you look at past development programs like the slim keg and half barrel pallets, it took years to get to production so I think they're on schedule. The problem is no updates from the company so how do you know what's going on.
I'd say it's more than just a single PR from two years ago because there was also the mention of AB in their loan documentation. Then there are the couple of things the CFO told me: that they had built a mold specifically for AB and AB was testing the units. At this point I think they are still in the evaluation or negotiation process and don't know how that'll turn out.
Plus there's the $500k they spent this past quarter preparing for new customers. And the CEO comment from April "The diligence and patience exhibited while working through an extended series of challenges and opportunities will be rewarded." Maybe that's just BS or maybe he's referring to AB taking longer than anticipated.
I still wonder about the option exercising and CEO purchases from last Dec/Jan. I thought that meant something big coming but so far there's nothing and the activity dried up even though they could be exercising more options now.
I agree on the investment still working out from here. All else being equal, if they just pay off ~$2M per year in debt that should go straight to the equity and we should have a share price around 25% higher next year. I'm all for that
So for me, I'll just wait and see what happens. I don't think the company will shrink so the question is how much will they grow
Two things are bothering me though at the moment. For one, the company does not seem cheap to me on an EV/Ebit basis. And two GLGI is too big a part of my portfolio. I bought a bunch earlier this year when the share price dropped and there was all that insider activity. I have other things I'd like to buy so I have to figure out if I want to sell some GLGI or wait or sell something else. we'll see
Sorry about the post getting so long. sometimes I ramble
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