It is too optimistic to believe that...
Centrino and Manitoba will make a significant difference in the p/l and that flash is improving but not that much to make it so different. And you are historically correct that the next 6 months are the stronger period after this weak quarter.
But we do not know if there will be a public shopping spree.
Or perhaps by the end of the year we have all lost jobs, lost more money on 401k plans, lost money on financing new houses at 4+ percent that are not appreciating and buying new cars at zero percent, and now we are tapped out when it comes to buying toys in the holidays.
Remember it is not the 90% of the business sales that makes any difference. It is the last 10% that is the difference between profit and loss. All the rest is fixed costs like payrolls, rents/leases/buybacks, and overhead expenses.
And it takes so little to upset this balancing act. Just a bad weather week can stop everything. Just a quick 9/11/2001 can turn the nation's focus elsewhere. Floods, hurrricane, national disasters. Or possibly a ride across the desserts of Iran on the back of a Humvee as we approach Teheran in another war televised....
All of this is distracting to the shopper and takes away some of the optimism.
Then there is real American who dauntingly faces the increased college tuition, higher school clothing costs, the increase property taxes, larger utility bills, increasing gas prices, and insurance increases. Add to that a terrible imbalance on import/exports with the third world gleefully taking up our labor/work. And how about all the imported goods coming into this country that reduces the U.S.labor market. And how about our own national debt which is so large that we are taking $1 out of every $25 from our federal income tax just to pay the interest on that debt every day//// Could you live like that???? And the loss of our privacy by giving our drivers licenses every time we go to Home Depot or shop a chain store... We have no privacy left.
All this is destabilizing and can have an effect. Will we have enough bucks in our pockets to do all we are being expected to do? like a buying spree nonstop.
So where is there to be so optimistic. A few more new things to sell or possibly a competitor that we all know is going to fold in the next year in some dramatic way. Can all that offset the overpricing of the stock?
