Friday, August 28, 2015 6:34:49 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 8/27 2015 EOD
In summary, some good, nothing really bad, and low volume and the day being the AGM causes a "wait and see" conclusion from me.
An atypical day, although not as unusual as before, as we opened above yesterday's close with a nice-sized buy of 41,786 shares, established a low quickly and bounced right back up by 9:43 and held that level through 9:46 (zero trades). 9:47-10:24 (zero trades) went flat, with a wide spread, at a reasonably high level. 10:25-11:49 dropped a bit and went flattish, with a couple excursions both higher and lower at 11:21 and 11:27. 11:50-12:58 began a ragged climb higher that ended just before the AGM began, achieving a high of $0.3764.
I made a 13:00 snapshot similar to my EOD table, open to 13:00 stats.
12:59-13:46 (zero trades last three minutes) was a low-volume wide spread flattish period in the $0.3712-$0.3748 range. 13:47-13:53 had a relatively high-volume drop to $0.3644 and 13:54-14:45 was a rising triangle pattern with tops flat at $0.365-$0.37 and the lows rising from $0.3644 to $0.37.
I made another snapshot of what went on with trading during the meeting.
14:46-15:16 made a descending triangle at the elevated range with the lows being around $0.3701 and the highs moving from $0.374 to $0.3717. 15:17-16:00 went flat on little volume with a fairly constant spread of $0.371-$0.3725 until 15:59 when 3,208 shares traded $0.3712-$0.3716 and we closed with a very small 700 share sell at $0.3710.
Here's stats for the period after the meeting ended.
There was only 1 larger block (>=20K), the opening block of 41,786 which was 6.23% of day's volume, for $0.3715.
OOPS! May be time for a new minimal chart. This one is focused only on the short-term descending channel and has some price points at $0.35 and $0.36 marked with the green and red horizontal lines.
Anyway, we don't know why it decided to move today. AGM? Just a natural follow-through on what I've been seeing trying to start over the last few days? Can't say, but it's welcome. Lets hope other things below suggest it's likely to exhibit some strength.
We got a higher open and close (closed below the open 5/100ths of a penny and above yesterday's close by 4.1%), higher low and higher high! Unfortunately it was on volume down by 16.64%. But take heart! Because of the AGM, reverse split votes, ... lower volume today was probably not an artifact of weaker positive sentiment, but likely uncertainty. If tomorrow wasn't a Friday I would think it might tell the tale. We'll likely have to wait until Monday to see how the voting and AGM were received by the retail investors that own 85% of the stock, per DJ in the meeting.
The oscillators I watch went mixed, normal considering the low volume and mild upward bias, with improvements in RSI, momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. These latter two exited oversold, which was entered yesterday and suggested we might see some price improvement (see VWAP below). MFI (untrusted by me) continued to fall while ADX-related went flat.
I mentioned yesterday that the 13-period Bollinger lower limit was being pushed by price and that suggested some move up towards the mid-point was likely. Today looks like it started, but with the low volume we can't say with confidence that the trend is underway. But we are not pushing on it now as we have moved up and away from it a little bit.
We moved towards the still-descending 50-day SMA, $0.3847 today, and if it wasn't Friday tomorrow I would be optimistic we'd try and push through it but likely re-trace. If the resulting sentiment from the AGM cc was positive it might try to do so anyway.
Our trading moved slightly up within my one-year chart's long-term descending channel and we are now slightly above the mid-point. Today the resistance looks to be around ~$0.41, which is an old friend now. I've got a sneaky hunch that next time we challenge it we'll move smartly through it in just one or two days. This thought is engendered by what we've been seeing in the trading volumes and because I believe that real shorters are disinterested at these price levels.
Our RSI positive divergence continues to improve.
Overall, I think the traditional TA is telling a more positive story now. But knowing that 85% of shares are held by retail we need to wait and see how the results of the voting, specifically the RS outcome, and tone of the AGM were received by them.
The percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions today with short percentage making a big swing to below my desired range. However, I'm not concerned about it because of what I expressed yesterday: { What this is telling us is ... If the MMs did get short-term long, we should see little or no downward pressure prior to the AGM tomorrow as MMs work to take profits by holding price up a bit. That should give us a lower daily short sale percentage too. }
When behavior is as expected, price held up and short percentage lower in this case, it suggests a "normal" market and doesn't engender too much concern.
The buy percentage could be of concern as it did not have an immediate strong response after the meeting ended. It was weak all day anyway, topping at 48.64% at 13:45 and generally weakening through the end of day. Because that was tepid in nature, I'm not reading it as a strong negative. Rather I think indecision or apathy, both of which will resolve going forward I think.
But let's not be all negative all the time - look at the spread, into a normal range, the VWAP improvement, and the fact that buy percentage did not fall off a cliff, but rather remained in trend.
Considering the above and adding in volume down ~16%, we can't take a lot away from this other than "neutral". It's a "wait and see" time as far as these experimental items are concerned.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
In summary, some good, nothing really bad, and low volume and the day being the AGM causes a "wait and see" conclusion from me.
An atypical day, although not as unusual as before, as we opened above yesterday's close with a nice-sized buy of 41,786 shares, established a low quickly and bounced right back up by 9:43 and held that level through 9:46 (zero trades). 9:47-10:24 (zero trades) went flat, with a wide spread, at a reasonably high level. 10:25-11:49 dropped a bit and went flattish, with a couple excursions both higher and lower at 11:21 and 11:27. 11:50-12:58 began a ragged climb higher that ended just before the AGM began, achieving a high of $0.3764.
I made a 13:00 snapshot similar to my EOD table, open to 13:00 stats.
12:59-13:46 (zero trades last three minutes) was a low-volume wide spread flattish period in the $0.3712-$0.3748 range. 13:47-13:53 had a relatively high-volume drop to $0.3644 and 13:54-14:45 was a rising triangle pattern with tops flat at $0.365-$0.37 and the lows rising from $0.3644 to $0.37.
I made another snapshot of what went on with trading during the meeting.
14:46-15:16 made a descending triangle at the elevated range with the lows being around $0.3701 and the highs moving from $0.374 to $0.3717. 15:17-16:00 went flat on little volume with a fairly constant spread of $0.371-$0.3725 until 15:59 when 3,208 shares traded $0.3712-$0.3716 and we closed with a very small 700 share sell at $0.3710.
Here's stats for the period after the meeting ended.
There was only 1 larger block (>=20K), the opening block of 41,786 which was 6.23% of day's volume, for $0.3715.
On the traditional TA front we at last saw a move towards my descending short-term resistance, which I've been expecting for several days now.Ending Period Period- Period- Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Period
Period Volume --Low-- --High- Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:45 81156 $0.3600 $0.3715 $29,742.41 $0.3665 12.10% 59.39% Incl. 41786 6.23% $0.3715
10:23 52583 $0.3647 $0.3700 $19,283.54 $0.3667 7.84% 47.87%
11:49 141914 $0.3606 $0.3666 $51,517.96 $0.3630 21.17% 40.70%
12:58 87525 $0.3643 $0.3764 $32,354.90 $0.3697 13.05% 47.59%
13:43 39100 $0.3711 $0.3748 $14,569.83 $0.3726 5.83% 48.47%
13:53 45440 $0.3644 $0.3739 $16,789.68 $0.3695 6.78% 46.41%
14:45 46072 $0.3644 $0.3700 $16,965.32 $0.3682 6.87% 44.67%
15:16 70780 $0.3701 $0.3740 $26,289.40 $0.3714 10.56% 43.56%
16:00 104357 $0.3710 $0.3727 $38,814.88 $0.3719 15.56% 41.80%
OOPS! May be time for a new minimal chart. This one is focused only on the short-term descending channel and has some price points at $0.35 and $0.36 marked with the green and red horizontal lines.
Anyway, we don't know why it decided to move today. AGM? Just a natural follow-through on what I've been seeing trying to start over the last few days? Can't say, but it's welcome. Lets hope other things below suggest it's likely to exhibit some strength.
We got a higher open and close (closed below the open 5/100ths of a penny and above yesterday's close by 4.1%), higher low and higher high! Unfortunately it was on volume down by 16.64%. But take heart! Because of the AGM, reverse split votes, ... lower volume today was probably not an artifact of weaker positive sentiment, but likely uncertainty. If tomorrow wasn't a Friday I would think it might tell the tale. We'll likely have to wait until Monday to see how the voting and AGM were received by the retail investors that own 85% of the stock, per DJ in the meeting.
The oscillators I watch went mixed, normal considering the low volume and mild upward bias, with improvements in RSI, momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. These latter two exited oversold, which was entered yesterday and suggested we might see some price improvement (see VWAP below). MFI (untrusted by me) continued to fall while ADX-related went flat.
I mentioned yesterday that the 13-period Bollinger lower limit was being pushed by price and that suggested some move up towards the mid-point was likely. Today looks like it started, but with the low volume we can't say with confidence that the trend is underway. But we are not pushing on it now as we have moved up and away from it a little bit.
We moved towards the still-descending 50-day SMA, $0.3847 today, and if it wasn't Friday tomorrow I would be optimistic we'd try and push through it but likely re-trace. If the resulting sentiment from the AGM cc was positive it might try to do so anyway.
Our trading moved slightly up within my one-year chart's long-term descending channel and we are now slightly above the mid-point. Today the resistance looks to be around ~$0.41, which is an old friend now. I've got a sneaky hunch that next time we challenge it we'll move smartly through it in just one or two days. This thought is engendered by what we've been seeing in the trading volumes and because I believe that real shorters are disinterested at these price levels.
Our RSI positive divergence continues to improve.
Overall, I think the traditional TA is telling a more positive story now. But knowing that 85% of shares are held by retail we need to wait and see how the results of the voting, specifically the RS outcome, and tone of the AGM were received by them.
The percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions today with short percentage making a big swing to below my desired range. However, I'm not concerned about it because of what I expressed yesterday: { What this is telling us is ... If the MMs did get short-term long, we should see little or no downward pressure prior to the AGM tomorrow as MMs work to take profits by holding price up a bit. That should give us a lower daily short sale percentage too. }
When behavior is as expected, price held up and short percentage lower in this case, it suggests a "normal" market and doesn't engender too much concern.
The buy percentage could be of concern as it did not have an immediate strong response after the meeting ended. It was weak all day anyway, topping at 48.64% at 13:45 and generally weakening through the end of day. Because that was tepid in nature, I'm not reading it as a strong negative. Rather I think indecision or apathy, both of which will resolve going forward I think.
But let's not be all negative all the time - look at the spread, into a normal range, the VWAP improvement, and the fact that buy percentage did not fall off a cliff, but rather remained in trend.
Considering the above and adding in volume down ~16%, we can't take a lot away from this other than "neutral". It's a "wait and see" time as far as these experimental items are concerned.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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