RE "can you do the math for PPHM selling 49% of the company for say $500 mil and extrapolating out say 5 yrs of approval income with a 10 bil a yr market to come up with money going to partner and PPHM vs PPHM alone? (This assuming Bavi for multiple indications) tia Edit ADD: Use the 500 mil shares. "
Yes, I can do the math.
But I will not use your 500 million share number because I strongly disagree with your assumption that if PPHM goes it alone for another FIVE (5) years that 500 million shares will be enough. Why? Current cash burn is about $12 million per q, but with more new trials starting cash burn will increase (forget Avid, that's just a distraction). So if cash burn goes up to $18 million per q times 4 q's per year = 72 times 5 years = $360 million.
There's about 60 million now + 50 more before in current authorized + 175 more authorized ~ $285 million assuming something near $1 per share. That leaves you about $75 million short. But it gets much much worse very quickly if the stock price declines, and with that huge amount of ATM selling I would expect the stock price to decline substantially. If we change the price to $.75 per share then your about $131 million short. (skipped typing the interim calculations here) I'll use a rounded midpoint of the $131 short and the $75 million short and say another $100 million ==== 600 million shares rather than 500 million shares.
Here's the example with your $10 billion market cap which I think is too high though, and i'll use 600 million shares based on my explanation above.
Go it along using dilution and keeping all Bavi:
$10 billion / 600 million shares = $16.66 per share.
Deal 50% now for $500 million and no more dilution:
$5 billion / 275 million shares(using obligated but not yet issued shares) = $18.18 per share.
PLUS the deal now route accomplishes:
* $500 million in the back today.
* END to ATM and price crushing stock sales via ATM
* Instant credibility
* instant huge stock jump
* news stories everywhere.
* positive stock price momentum!
It's a no brainer.
Start the positive cycle of events AND END the negative cycle of events.
