S&P 500 Index (SP500)

[DiscoverGold]

Martin Armstrong: Thank You – The Future

* August 25, 2015

We are NOT out of the woods yet. With nearly every week hereafter being a Directional Change ending with another Panic Cycle the week of October 19th, the risk that we still see an October low in dollars remains in effect. The degree that the market fell on our model was the same as the 1987 Crash – we moved to the third Monthly Bearish Reversal at 15550 reaching intraday 15370.33. So the degree of damage was equivalent. However, the degree the talking heads are calling this a buying opportunity should give us some concern that this may not be over until Obama screams.

We will be updating on this scenario ahead. The long-term still remain intact that we will have to see the market push to new highs and reach at least the 23000 level but to accomplish that we need the crack in bonds. The Fed is still in a box and will have no choice for the market will price in interest rate advances and they will be compelled to follow the trend.

Keep in mind that this is the 13th year up from the 2002 low (lowest yearly closing). That warns we could have a wild swing this year even if the market extended into a 17 to 19 year rally. The furthest out looks to be a high off in 2023 with 2022 as the high close. If we are really dealing with a Sovereign Debt Crisis, then the only place for capital is to hide is private assets. We do not see any chance of a Great Depression in the classic 1929 terms since there is no government that constitutes a safe-haven as the USA once did back in the 1930s.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36498

- George.

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.