InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 14
Posts 453
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 05/28/2015

Re: None

Thursday, 08/20/2015 5:59:55 PM

Thursday, August 20, 2015 5:59:55 PM

Post# of 21105
There will be only those two things that will draw the attention to HPTG products:

1) Crude oil prices
2) Strict regulations for green house emissions

I like to share the co-relationship with the relative strength of the US dollar vs WTI crude oil price.
At the start of the financial crisis 2008/07/12 1 euro = 1.6 us dollar and WTI = $ 140 barrel 2008/07/01

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart

When the US dollar goes up the WTI goes down and the other way round:
http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar-gold-and-oil-historical-chart

A number of commodity related countries have in the last 3 months devaluated their currencies: Russian Ruble, South African Rand, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar. (Compared to the euro because 19 different countries with different economies have constantly compromise with each other and theirfore not compete with single countries with a single currency).

Also when you look at the last 6 months euro vs US dollar we see a sideways pattern the most of the world leading stockmarkets follow a sideways pattern too.

At 2015/08/05 the central bank of China start to devaluate the Yuan on behalf of the Chinese government because the stockmarkets need to be stimulated for the sake of export stimulation. (In the mean while years in a row lots of fysical gold has been bought to support the Yuan).

Russia and China allways back each other up at the UN meetings. Attemps are made by them to influence the value of the US dollar (they bought lots of US bonds). The United States expressed strong criticism to the Russians after the raid in eastern Ukraine. The Russians threatened to devalue the US dollar.

Conclusion 1: there is a currency war going on -> this has a negative impact on a hard commodity as oil -> this has a negative influence on the stock markets -> lots of retail investors will lose money so this also has a negative influence on consumer behaviour (see for instance China).

End conclusion the oil price can remain low for a long time since there are only losers during a currency war and nobody knows the outcome. Bad news for HPTG! Unless the environmental regulations will kick in.
Join InvestorsHub

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.