Intel Corp (INTC)

[morrowinder]

Why AMD REALLY is ditching the 1mb Athlon x2 parts...


Ed at Overclockers:

"The Real Reason: Capacity

Whenever AMD (or for that matter Intel) does something that doesn't make a lot of sense, rest assured that they're being forced by circumstances into doing it.

For the next year or so, AMD is going to be faced with a series of capacity crises. Yes, I know they've been saying the exact opposite, but hear me out:

For the next few years, AMD is trying to roughly double the number of CPUs it makes while the CPUs themselves will be doubling in cores (and size) a couple times. That's a double whammy on production capacity, since a doubling of cores on a CPU effectively eats the die space you save on a process shrink.

The first crisis is being caused by a combination of success and lack of fab capacity due to the mainstreaming of dual-core processors and AMD's inability to make 65nm processors yet. Yes, Fab 36 is making a few 90nm chips, but I would bet dollars to doughnuts the number of chips being made is nominal, after all, they have to make 65nm chips shortly. Yes, Chartered is making a few, but they'll have to convert to 65nm sooner rather than later, too.

A shift of even 20% in the production mix towards dual-core probably will eat up any additional capacity provided by Fab 36 and Chartered.

By early next year, Fab 36 ought to be making serious quantities of 65nm chips, but it will take a few quarters to ramp up, and in the meantime, Fab 30 will be phased out. AMD will have the same problem in 2007 with its 65nm chips that Intel will have with Conroe, etc. in 2006: the bulk of their capacity will remain with older chips.

Even by the latter part of 2007 going into 2008, Fab 36 really isn't all that terribly big, and if AMD really wants to make anything close to a hundred million chips a quarter, Chartered is going to have to be the ones who'll have to really ramp up."




http://www.overclockers.com/tips00980/