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Monday, 08/17/2015 9:38:45 PM

Monday, August 17, 2015 9:38:45 PM

Post# of 481451
The Iran deal appears to have eased some of the conflicts in Middle East



Contrary to what Israel and US Republicans are saying, the Iran nuclear agreement has eased rather than exacerbated the conflicts in the Middle East.

Daoud Kuttab
Amman, JORDAN
12 Aug. 2015

Contrary to the claims of Israel and US Republicans, the P5+1 agreement with Iran has eased, not exacerbated, the boiling conflicts in the Middle East. Within a short period of time, a silver lining is appearing in the bloody Syrian civil war.

The legitimate Yemeni powers are retaking large sections of south Yemen without any reaction from the Iranians, who many claimed would move to support the Houthis. In Iraq, the prime minister has passed the most wide-ranging anti-corruption law in parliament without the Iranians meddling in the affairs of their neighbour, whose leaders happen to be fellow Shiites.

The Libyan conflict also appears to be moving towards a diplomatic resolution as all parties are now meeting in Geneva under UN auspices. The Islamic republic of Iran has not delayed these diplomatic solutions, on the contrary it appears to have been encouraging them.

Iran and Russia are working together with the aim of finding a political solution to end the Syrian conflict. While various regional conflicts appear to be on their way to being resolved, it is very hard to make a direct connection between the P5+1 agreement with Iran and the easing of these crises. A 48 hour ceasefire was declared in many Syrian cities and was even extended.

It is not that Iran suddenly made a U-turn the moment they signed the nuclear deal. A more nuanced explanation is more likely. The various conflicts in the Middle East are not purely internal. Regional, and even international, tensions have an effect on them. In some cases the external parties have a direct role and in others they have an indirect impact. But in all cases, an easing of regional and international tensions always has a direct effect on local conflicts. The moment the fighters in Syria or Yemen see that the international community is working together, as in the Iran deal, they quickly realise that they can’t go on expecting these external tensions to continue for ever and fuel their own conflict.

Another explanation for the easing of these conflicts might have to do with regional balance of power. Until the Iran deal was signed, the role of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iraq and the Gulf countries, was much more important than that of regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. But within a short period of time both Iran and Turkey appear to have made political decisions that have enhanced their potential role as regional powers. Iran made its deal with the international community and Turkey has changed its position on allowing the US to use their Incirlik Air Base to attack Daesh.

Lebanese writer Raghida Dergham captured this issue in a recent column in which she argued that Arab countries are worried about losing regional influence with Turkey and Iran gaining power. This feeling — whether correct or not — has played a big role in the realisation of regional countries that if the situation doesn’t ease, Turkey and Iran will have even more influence in the Arab world than they already have.

Whatever the reason for the apparent current diplomatic movements that are likely to put out the fires raging in the region, there is no doubt that the American diplomatic success with Iran is a contributing factor. A diplomatic success in resolving what appears to be an unresolved problem always has ripple effects.

Despite the fact that the Iran and the international community insisted that the deal was solely about Tehran’s nuclear programme and nothing else, the accord has certainly been felt in all the regional conflicts.

We are still a long way from concluding that the Syrian, Yemeni, Libyan or other Middle East conflicts are on their way to being resolved. It is also a stretch to say that all these conflicts are being resolved only because of the Iran nuclear deal with the international community. But we can safely say today that the P5+1 agreement with Iran has certainly not added fuel to the fire as right-wing American warmongers are claiming.

The full implementation of the Iran deal is now suspended until the US Congress votes on it in September. But come October, and if this deal is not derailed, one can confidently predict that Iran under its current administration will be more interested in improving the lives of its own people than wrecking the lives of its neighbours.

©2015 BYLINE MEDIA

https://www.byline.com/column/5/article/249 [no comments yet] [also at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daoud-kuttab/iran-deal-middle-east_b_7985528.html (with comments)]


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Former Iranian MPs in Exile Urge Congress to Approve Iran Nuclear Deal

By Jahandad Memarian [ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jahandad-memarian/ ]
Jahandad Memarian is a research associate at the West Asia Council [ http://westasiacouncil.org/ ]. He is also a senior research fellow at Nonviolence International [ http://nonviolenceinternational.net/ ], a Master alumni in Western Philosophy from the University of Tehran, and he was Previously an Iranian Fulbright scholar at the University of California, Santa Barbara from 2010-2011(the FLTA scholarship from Institute of International Education). Prior to that, Memarian was a researcher at the Iranian Parliament Research Center and worked as a journalist at Hamshahri Newspaper.
Posted: 08/15/2015 5:01 pm EDT Updated: 08/15/2015 5:59 pm EDT

*

Honorable Members of the United States Congress,

We, the undersigned, have had the honor of representing Iranian people in various terms of the Majlis (Parliament) and have all been forced to temporarily live in exile due to our opposition to both foreign and domestic policies in Iran. We support democratic pluralism, peaceful relations with all nations and strictly adhere to Non-Proliferation Treaty. We are writing to urge you to approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated by Iran and the group of 5 + 1 nations. For the agreement, in addition to preventing armed conflict and paving the way for resumption of normal trade relations between Iran and Western countries, has the potential to make a significant contribution to the resolution of crises in the Persian Gulf region.

Two decades of unilateral actions undertaken outside the framework of the United Nations in response to security threats in the Middle East have resulted in the spread of war, chaos and terrorism. The unanimous passage of Resolution 2231 by the United Nations Security Council endorsing JCPOA demonstrates intense and widespread international support for the agreement. The near unanimity of international support, both governmental and public opinion, for the initiative has created a new hope across the world that dangerous conflicts among sovereign nations can be resolved through negotiations.

We appeal to you, the honorable representatives of American people, to resist the kind of pressures whose promoters seem to have learned nothing from the tragic events of the past. We urge you to adopt a new approach to security challenges of the Middle East by casting a vote for JCPOA and announce your approval of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231. Such a move will constitute a precedent setting contribution to the resolution of international disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.

The complicated trajectory to democracy, protection of human rights, development and social justice in Iran needs détente in our foreign relations and avoidance of violent crises in the region. We urge you to consider this reality in reviewing the actual and potential implications of JCPOA. The continuation of irrational animosity between Iran and the United States is a disservice to both nations and a major hindrance to the efforts of reform minded and human rights activists in Iran.

Best regards,

Former Members of the Islamic Iranian Parliament

Ahmad Salamatian
Member of the 1st Parliament, Former Deputy Foreign Minister and residing in Paris, France

Hasan Yousefi Eshkevari
Member of the 1st Parliament and residing in Bonne, Germany

Rajabali Mazrooei
Member of the 6th Parliament and residing in Brussels, Belgium

Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
Member of the 6th Parliament and residing in Boston, U.S.A.

Ali-Akbar Mousavi (Khoeini)
Member of the 6th Parliament and residing in Maryland, U.S.A.

*

Copyright ©2015 TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jahandad-memarian/former-iranian-mps-in-exi_b_7992382.html [with comments]


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Ben Carson Suggests Obama’s Iran Deal Is ‘Anti-Semitic’


CREDIT: AP Photo/Jonathan Bachman

by Sam P.K. Collins
Aug 16, 2015 11:41am

After expressing an eagerness to weigh in more on matters of the economy and foreign policy, GOP presidential candidate Ben Carson decried the Iran nuclear deal and called President Barack Obama’s policies anti-Semitic during an appearance on Fox News Sunday (FNS).

Carson, a top contender for the GOP nomination, made his comments to Chris Wallace in defense of his Jerusalem Post op-ed [ http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/White-House-Employing-Ugly-Tactics-to-Sell-a-Rotten-Iran-Deal-412047 ], a piece the FNS host said included “innuendos involving implied disloyalty and influence related to money and power.”

“Well I think anything is anti-Semitic that is against the survival of a state that is surrounded by enemies and by people who want to destroy them,” Carson told Wallace. “And to sort of ignore that and to act like everything is normal there and that these people are paranoid, I think that’s anti-Semitic.”

You can watch the segment here [ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN8GBdXE34Q (next below, as embedded)]:


Though Carson didn’t explicitly mention the Iran deal during his Fox News Sunday interview, he recounted conversations he had with people in Israel, telling Wallace that he hasn’t met one person who “didn’t think the administration had turned its back on Israel.”

In September, lawmakers will vote on the Iran nuclear deal [ http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/iran-nuclear-deal-specifics-116645.html ], a set of negotiations between Iran and six countries, including an agreement by Iran to hand over two-thirds of its 19,000 centrifuges to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The deal, if approved by Congress, would also secure billions of dollars in economic relief to Iran it would get through economic sanctions.

But not everyone wants the deal to come to fruition. Isaac “Bougie” Herzog, leader of Israel’s left-leaning Labor Party, says Iran is disengenuous in its intentions, telling the Atlantic [ http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/israel-isaac-herzog-iran-nuclear-deal/398705/ ] that Iranian leadership will use the money from the deal to purchase more weapons and become a nuclear stronghold within the next decade. Republicans also oppose the deal, pointing to portions they say would limit congressional action in the event of future opposition. Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY), too, spoke out against the deal, writing a 1,700 word statement [ http://www.schumer.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/my-position-on-the-iran-deal ] on the matter.

This isn’t the first time Carson has accused someone of being divisive. He criticized the Black Lives Matter movement, calling it “silly [ http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/08/01/3685871/carson-black-lives-matter/ ]” during an interview with ThinkProgress’ Kira Lerner. He later criticized members’ tactics [ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/15/carson-critical-black-lives-matter-message-strategy-disrupting-campaign-event/ ] of disrupting campaign events on Fox News, telling reporters that protestors should focus more on black-on-black violence.

@2015 CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS ACTION FUND

http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/08/16/3692114/ben-carson-calls-obama-anti-semitic/ [with comments]


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Iran's Supreme Leader Says Fate Of The Nuclear Deal Still Unclear


In this picture released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a meeting in Tehran, Monday, Aug. 17, 2015.
(Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)



In this picture released by the official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a speech during a meeting in Tehran, Monday, Aug. 17, 2015.
(Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)


Iran's parliament will consider the deal in the coming days.

Posted: 08/17/2015 09:49 AM EDT

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Monday the fate of a historic nuclear deal with world powers is still unclear as lawmakers in both the Islamic Republic and the U.S. review it.

The comments by Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters in Iran, suggests he supports allowing Iran's parliament to review and vote on the deal. However, his remarks carried on his official website still offered no clue on whether he himself supported the accord.

Referring to the U.S., Khamenei said: "In their understanding of the deal, of which its fate is not clear since it is not clear if will be approved here or there, their intention was to find a way to penetrate into the country."

He added: "We blocked the way. We will strongly block this way. We will not allow either economic penetration or political and cultural penetration into the country by the U.S."

Iran's parliament and the Supreme National Security Council will consider the agreement in the coming days. On Sunday, more than 200 Iranian lawmakers issued a statement demanding the administration of President Hassan Rouhani submit the deal to parliament for a vote.

Khamenei himself has not publicly approved or disapproved. However, he has repeatedly offered words of support for Iran's nuclear negotiators.

The deal calls for limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. The accord came after nearly two years of negotiations between Iran and world powers including the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany.

The West long has suspected Iran's nuclear program has a military dimension. Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes, like power generation and medical treatments.

© 2015 Associated Press

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/iran-khamenei-nuclear-deal_55d1d4cbe4b07addcb4354f6 [with comments] [original at http://bigstory.ap.org/article/dd0165170ba04010b4339a4bee015a88/iran-supreme-leader-says-fate-nuclear-deal-still-unclear (no comments yet)]


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Iran’s perspective on Syria: U.S. allies to blame for rise of Islamic State


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, right, welcomes his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Moscow on Monday, Aug. 17, 2015. The two held talks on implementation of the nuclear deal and on international efforts to mediate the conflict in Syria.
Ivan Sekretarev - AP


If Iran joins talks on Syria’s future, it will bring a different perspective

Assad is defending himself, hasn’t committed war crimes

Hezbollah was acting in Lebanon’s defense when it sent fighters to help Assad

By Roy Gutman
August 17, 2015

TEHRAN — If, as many expect, Iran will soon be invited to play a bigger role in combating the Islamic State and in any future talks over the future of Syria, its clerical regime will arrive with an entirely different perspective from other participants’.

Iran has sent hundreds of advisers and thousands of volunteers to Syria in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and few in Tehran would dispute that that support has been has been indispensable for Assad’s survival to date.

“If Iran didn’t support Assad, he would be gone by now,” said Ali Bigdeli, an international relations professor at the National University of Iran.

But Iran takes no responsibility for Assad’s war tactics, including the alleged use of chemical weapons against rebels in 2013 and the use of “barrel bombs” that have killed thousands of civilians.

Some 12 million Syrians have been forced from their homes by what a U.N panel says are government crimes against humanity.

But Iran remains adamant that Assad remains the legitimate ruler in Syria, and that it is opposed to the establishment of a no-fly zone, something Turkey has demanded, but that the United States also opposes.

“The security of Syria as our strategic ally is very important,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahlan, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, told McClatchy. “We do not support the establishing a no-fly zone or a protected one in Syria. We believe this will complicate the situation more.”

Although Iran’s influence is on the upswing following the July agreement with six great powers on its nuclear program, there are major questions about the country’s ability to manage crisis, not only in Syria, but also in Iraq, where Iran has been the dominant outside power since U.S. forces departed at the end of 2011.

It was on Iran’s watch and under the leaders it backed, Assad in Syria and Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki in Iraq, that Sunni extremists captured an enormous swath of territory in both countries and set up a self-styled “caliphate.” Yet few in Iran accept any responsibility for the upheaval, and many put the blame exclusively on Arab states, Turkey and the U.S.

Officially, Iran even disputes that the Syrian revolt was home-grown, but blames it on unspecified “foreign intelligence services.”

“It is more than four years that Syria has been fighting terrorism,” Amir-Abdollahlan said.

“Based on our information, the uprising began in the border city of Daraa, and from the early hours of the uprising, foreign forces entered Daraa. . . . Of course the people’s demands turned violent. And the Bashar Assad government took measures to control it.”

Amir-Abdollahlan offered no evidence to back that version, which does not accord with news and eyewitness accounts from the time. He rejected claims by Assad’s opponents that Assad had close links to jihadists during the U.S. occupation of Iraq and therefore bears some responsibility for their rise in Syria.

“The information, from my point of view, is not very precise,” he said.

He also defended the presence inside Syria of fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, saying they were there not just to defend Assad, but also Lebanon’s own security from the threat of Sunni Muslim extremists.

“Hezbollah, in order to defend the security of Lebanon, was forced to undertake operations in coordination with the Syrian government . . . inside the Syrian borders,” he said. “And all of the people of Lebanon, be they Muslims, Sunni, Shia, or Christians are supporting Hezbollah in this.”

Some prominent voices here go so far as denying that Assad has committed war crimes. “These reports that you hear that Assad has done these kinds of things are not real,” said Hamid-Rezi Taraghi, the international affairs spokesman for the Islamic Coalition party and a former member of parliament. He said all the crimes against civilians “had been done by terrorists supported by Turkey.”

According to Taraghi, Iran is prepared to send Iranian forces into Syria. “If necessary, we will send them,” he said. Some officials have threatened to send up to 100,000 Basij or revolutionary guard fighters. “They’re always ready,” said Taraghi.

Across the political spectrum, Iranian foreign affairs experts claim that the Islamic State is sponsored by U.S. allies in the region.

“You see half of Syria has now been captured by Islamic State forces with the support of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and with technical assistance by Erdogan,” said Mohammad-Javad Hag-Shenas, a journalist, academic and former government official, referring to Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Bigdeli, the university professor, said the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Qatar “created” the Islamic State in order “to rein in Iran’s power in the region,” and for this same reason, the U.S. decided “not to eradicate the Islamic State group.”

And Taraghi claimed there was a “U.S. plan for a new Middle East” to set up and finance the terrorist groups in the region with the aim of making “the Muslim countries insecure.”

If Iran is invited to future talks on Syria, it will probably urge the participants to support Assad at least until his term ends “and to help Assad fight the Islamic State inside Syria,” Hag-Shenas said.

Copyright 2015 McClatchy Washington Bureau

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article31304990.html [no comments yet] [also at http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article31311434.html
(no comments yet)]


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Pentagon Plans to Increase Drone Flights by 50 Percent

By LOLITA C. BALDOR
Aug 17, 2015, 7:49 PM ET

JOINT BASE LANGLEY-EUSTIS, Va. (AP) - Faced with escalating aggression from Russia and China, the Pentagon is planning to increase its use of drones by about 50 percent over the next several years, using the Army and civilian contractors to put more of the unmanned aircraft in the air.

The decision to add Army and civilian-operated missions to the mix was triggered because the Air Force — which had been running about 65 combat air patrol missions a day — asked to decrease that number to 60 because of stress on the force. But 60 patrols don't come close to meeting the demands of top military commanders facing growing security threats around the world.

Senior U.S. officials said that while drones have been used largely to target terrorists and collect intelligence over combat zones, those needs may shift in the coming years.

Top military leaders, including the incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford, have named Russia as the nation's most serious security threat. And China's rising military power and island-building program in the South China Sea have increased tensions and prompted a greater demand for U.S. surveillance and intelligence across the Pacific.

One senior defense official said Pentagon leaders are taking those security challenges into account as they decide how armed and unarmed drones will be used across Europe and the Pacific. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the issue publicly.

Pentagon leaders have been wrestling with the problem for some time, as the need for more airstrikes and surveillance by drones over Iraq and Syria to battle the Islamic State group offsets a decline in unmanned flights over Afghanistan as the war there winds down. Under the plans laid out by senior defense officials, the Air Force would continue to provide 60 daily drone missions, while the Army would conduct about 16, and U.S. Special Operations Command and civilian contractors would do up to 10 each.

"It's the combatant commanders, they need more. They're tasked to do our nation's business overseas so they feel that stress on them, and it's not getting better," said Air Force Maj. Gen. J.D. Harris, Jr., vice commander of Air Combat Command at Joint Base Langley-Eustis. "There's just not enough of the Air Force to go around."

The civilian contractors would fly surveillance drones, not the armed aircraft. But senior defense officials said they need at least a small contractor contribution in order to reach the total of 90 combat air patrols per day.

The key unanswered questions, however, are how the Pentagon will pay for the additional patrols and how the military will sort out and analyze the growing torrent of data pouring in.

Officials said some of the costs could be borne by war funding — the overseas contingency operations in a separate account approved by Congress. The account funded some of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as some counterterrorism operations in the Middle East and Africa.

The use of the Army and contractor flights will give the Air Force time to recover and rebuild its drone staffing. Over the past decade, the Air Force had to very quickly expand the number of unmanned flights over Iraq and Afghanistan. To do that, it made fighter pilots switch to unmanned Predator and Reaper drones, and moved trainers into operations missions.

"Five, six years ago, we overmatched our system and we said we could provide more than what we were capable of providing on a sustained basis," Harris told The Associated Press in an interview at his Langley office. "We actually decimated our training units. We pulled crews that were instructors that should be training the next round of students, and we put them on the operational lines flying missions overseas just to provide everything we could to the combatant commanders."

As a result, the Air Force has trained about 180 air crew members per year, far short of the goal of 300.

Harris and other military leaders thought that the demand for drones would dip as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan waned. But the renewed conflict in Iraq, the fighting in Syria, the terror threat in North Africa, the Russian invasion of Ukraine's Crimea region and the simmering tensions in the Pacific have only increased commanders' appetite for drones.

To relieve the burden on the Air Force, the military has already begun using Army Gray Eagle drones in Afghanistan and could expand to other regions as required.

But, as the missions increase, the amount of video and other data being funneled to analysts will also spike.

Officials said they are working on ways to filter the data more efficiently so that key intelligence is identified and gets to the right people.

"The intelligence analysts who process the information coming from these flights are a critical part of this," said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. "So, as we talk about expanding the number of UAV (drone) flights, we also have to look at the workload of the analysts who process that. We have to have the supporting backbone to be able to process that information and turn it into actionable intelligence."

© 2015 Associated Press

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/pentagon-plans-increase-drone-flights-50-percent-33141128 [ http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/pentagon-plans-increase-drone-flights-50-percent-33141128?singlePage=true ] [with comments]


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Greensburg, KS - 5/4/07

"Eternal vigilance is the price of Liberty."
from John Philpot Curran, Speech
upon the Right of Election, 1790


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