Syncora Holdings Ltd. (fka SYCRF)

[DennyCrane550]

RockRaider-

So I believe the Financials show only ~50m-100m in assets for ALL AMERICAN ROADS, which seems to underestimate the value there

Mgmt last confirmed the EBITDA in 2014 was $15MM (shareholder meeting)

2012 was $14.2 million per bankruptcy (see below)

so i guess 13-17m is current range with 15-17m high side, should be our expectations, given the recent

AMERICAN ROADS once had ebitda much higher, i think in 30s, but just assume 14-15 EBITDA for now...

so Wonder what American Roads is worth
based on this recent transaction

IFM Investors to buy 75-year lease of Indiana Toll Road for $5.72B.

FWIW

here is the comparison:

Indiana: $140-160M EBITDA 66yr lease 130k daily traffic
AMER ROADS: $14-16M EBITDA 40-60yr lease 33k daily traffic

Orig Debt taken out before both went belly up:
Indiana $3.85B
AmerRoads $496M

Today worth? :
Indiana $5.72B
AmerRoads $XX


It implies that AMERICAN ROADS ~~~ 5-10% of Indiana Toll => $300-570M surely worth more with additional properties too. or even higher
Easily worth more than Syncora has marked on its Balance Sheet at least to my eyes!

That aside, perhaps MacQuarrie Case makes this value probably not tapped near term

Regardless, valuable asset, especially with Traffic picking back up and new lease agreements

WINDSOR RIGHT NOW looking to sign a new JOA with Syncora/DWT, in discussions

From 2007-12, traffic on each of the company's toll roads and tunnels has fallen between 1.9 percent and as much as 8.6 percent at times, Belitsky said in a court filing. The company paid an average of $35 million per year in debt service, but its revenue in 2012 amounted to only $22.2 million — well below the $50 million for 2012 that consultants projected at the time of the 2006 refinancing — and $14.2 million in earnings before the deduction of interest, tax and amortization expenses, he said.

That drop in traffic is the result of many factors, including the recession, gas price volatility, reductions in discretionary spending, toll increases in Alabama and onerous border-crossing requirements, according to the filing. It also was affected by regional events such as the environmental disaster caused by BP PLC's Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, an Alabama tornado in 2011 and decreasing population in Detroit, the company said

BTW Detroit Tunnel Traffic is up 5% in 2015 y/y
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/city-of-windsor-moves-to-secure-tunnels-long-term-fate


Traffic numbers increased five per cent in the first six months of this year, after remaining stable for several years. Close to four million vehicles use the tunnel annually.

I believe the Alabama Tolls are up as well, and clearly now have additional properties, parking lots, etc


Tho clearly the assets performed better in the past

Between 2008 and 2012, the city did not receive any funds from tunnel operations due to a steep decline in traffic — affected by tighter border regulations and far fewer U.S. customers heading to Caesars Windsor.

Tunnel profit-sharing peaked between 2001 and 2005, when the city received annual cheques of $6.6 million.

“The $1-million dividend is appreciated, but is not a big part of the city budget,” Reidel said. “Of greater importance to us is maintaining the downtown-to-downtown connection for our commuters. We have 5,000 people per day going to work (in the Detroit area).”

About 12,000,000 vehicles travel on American Roads’ facilities each year.

American Roads' mission is to provide its customers with safe and efficient road transport routes. Our bridges save people time and gas, by offering the fastest and shortest routes to destinations, and avoiding congested roads and delays of multiple traffic lights.

With years of toll operations and maintenance experience, and a well-trained and dedicated staff, we strive to provide top quality service to all our patrons.

We currently operate four toll bridges in the Alabama, as well as an international border crossing tunnel between Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario:

Emerald Mountain Expressway (Wetumpka, AL)
Montgomery Expressway (Millbrook, AL)
Tuscaloosa Bypass (Tuscaloosa, AL)
Beach Express (Orange Beach, AL)
Detroit Windsor Tunnel (Detroit, MI)