Biotech Values

[ghmm]

GLPG/ABBV:

I can think of no advantage for Abbvie to decide prior to the full 60 days. I did a relisten of the call and to clarify the slight difference in when the 60 days starts. Apparantly Abbvie will get the data any day now and in "a couple weeks" is when Galappagos will report them to the public. Additionally there were rumors (I forget which news media) that J&J was interested in partnering should Abbvie decline. I personally expect Abbvie to license it I see this as a very small investment to make even if their JAK compares favorably (I am guessing it does not but don't have much to go on besides vaguely recalling GLPG management mentioning seeing some preclinical data on Abbvie's JAK in much earlier CC's) it takes risk/competition away.

I thought the data especially for ACR-70 were particularly strong. Further there is more data on male 200mg dosing to possibly remove that restriction in Phase 3 (note this was in the US only). My main concern when I first saw results was the patient death. Its not clear what if any role filgotinib had nor apparently will it likely ever be known. But apparently the DSMB was not concerned enough to intervene and the company said no other deaths have occurred in any trial (including Chrohn's).

I still have the majority of my shares when I took some money off the table part of my thinking was the royalties (on both programs) was less than I expected.

My original reply was to Dew's link to PGS's analysis of JAK's so I am hoping he will do an update .