In the next week either a sale will be announced or the ECO agreement will be further extended.
I am a part of an ad hoc network of private PTOI retail investors that has a very good idea of the identity of the three potential buyers.
The consensus view is that the most efficient configuration of the processors, as currently designed, continues to be a three processor cluster. The publicly disclosed purchase price to ECO for the equipment from PTOI for three processors would require $7.5 million. Other equipment, materials, buildings and infrastructure may require an equal amount, so the all in cost of a 3 unit cluster may be around $15 million.
My view is PTOI has already processed a significant amount of plastic waste for the likely first buyer and a pilot is not required by that potential customer. I believe there is another buyer, who was the original first buyer. That customer will require a pilot at some point. I also think that buyer will become the third closed sale.
It is my opinion the much larger sale, an initial sale of 12 processors and for 30 processors eventually, will be the second customer to place an order. That first 12 unit sale would approach a $50 million investment from the customer. I believe that customer will require a pilot but also that the configuration of the processors for that customer may require an alternate pilot facility. Given the players involved, my guess is that pilot facility would be a small model that would be scaled up to suit the customers requirements. Again, given the players involved, that scale model facility may even already exist.
I am hopeful a sale is announced in the next week, however given the circumstances more time may be required. I was encouraged by JBII Share Hoarders drive by report of significant activity at the Niagara Falls facility last week, but an ECO extension given the complexities and magnitude of the financial commitment would not surprise me either.
