I'm not a believer of great pontification. I've yet to find anyone, on any level, whether 7 figure paid "expert" economists or unpaid bloggers, who can predict these things more than about 50% of the time, i.e., the monkey expert, the coin flipper is pretty much as accurate.
When oil was dying in the $30's, the experts were claiming the huge glut and efficiencies in tech would continue a buyer's market. Then at each peak, those experts were claiming $100 oil, $1000 gold, etc., etc. During the week that there is some retraction, we see "commodity depression, r/e bubble burst, etc."
As for the loss of jobs, it's not so simplistic. When people don't buy new homes, they fix up their homes, etc., etc. They buy more furniture and furnishings. People have to move, people die, they get married, they have kids, things change and they have to sell or buy. Further, prices can decline when a bubble bursts but trading continues. I.e, there are just as many arguments that any bubble burst will cause a more robust r/e industry with increase in jobs.
The grand pronouncements, whether that is that everyone should be 100% cash or 100% fully invested in the latest MOMO de jour, are successful just about 50% of the time. We remember the 50% of our predictions that work and we hide those that don't. Therefore, we are all geniuses (genii?) and as we rub our lamps hoping we are right, we go on and survive by being diversified in reality.
