Tuesday, July 21, 2015 7:11:27 AM
I have always maintained that while charts tell you a lot about established investment vehicles, they say diddly little about "event-driven" companies, be it large cap, mid-cap, small cap or penny. Like all penny stocks, this is an event driven stock. While charts and technicals are good in the main to confirm past behavior, they are practically useless to predict its future behavior, except perhaps when only momo traders are involved. A couple of Jacks and the charts can be thrown out the window when it comes to long term performance.
Of course, I also maintain that penny stocks, especially these biotech types, attract a lot of here today, gone tomorrow types of investors, and they can cause a lot of volatility that is difficult to bear. For example, it is easy to say that most of us holding for at least 3 months could have unloaded first at 8c and then at 13 c and more than trebled our position going long. But the reality is that as soon as one tries this technique, at least one that holds a substantial position (like a couple of million shares), the tide turns against such a one. The MMs are smart. They know who the small time traders are and the the stock price is unaffected by their various piddly moves. Twice I have unloaded and bought back over half a million shares (in bits) in the past month and I was barely able to get back my position. If I had unloaded large amounts at a time, the SP would sink and stay there for a while till an "event" catapulted the SP but I would have lost the major bounce. So most of these guys (many posting incessantly here) are the day trader types. They will never be able to reap the fruits of any company's real growth in SP since they never had the patience to stick it out. Of course, the downside of holding in the case of a penny stock is that one never knows the real story about the company till it has pulled itself out of the woods (become at least a small cap). So the dangers are there and one could lose substantially. So there is a fine line in investing in such stocks, not that I am the expert in this because I am not. My take is that as soon as possible when the stock price rises one should cash in on one's capital investment and let the rest ride. Later when the sky clears there is always another chance to increase your investment.
Just a few thoughts from who has been beaten down many a time...
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