Progressive Stocks

[Huggy Bear]

This is one of the most unique political situations I have ever seen in my adult lifetime. We could probably wax on endlessly about the various elements and entanglements of this crisis, as indeed this has turned into a full blown crisis with unknown consequences of either a debt relief agreement and influx of further capital for Greece or the real ringer, the Grexit.

I would suspect that in the case of continued impasse and a Grexit all the unrest and protests and violence that has been witnessed thusfar would seem like children squabbling on a playground.

Full blown anarchy could indeed erupt because the Greek government will run completely out of Euros and worse off, the public will not be able to access what they do have in the banking system which has been severely restricted for the last two weeks. Any return to the drachma would have to value the currency at drachma for one Euro, and reality would force the drachma into an almost instant 50% haircut, or worse.

I am of the opinion that Tsipiras is a hubris filled idiot. At minimum in governing economic reality. He encouraged his people to reject the EU and ECB proposal which they indeed did. He thought he could get the Germans to accept his version of a debt plan, and that seems to have fallen short by a mile. The Germans may indeed now demand even harsher concessions in retaliation to Tsipiras' defiance.

The bottom line seems to be summarized as something like "who the fuck are you to strong arm us?" "You have no money and cannot even take care of your own people let alone adhere to current debt repayment obligations."

I dare anyone to try Greek style negotiations with your whoever services your house note, your business loan, anything. See where this gets you.

Now the Germans want Greek state assets to directly back 56B in further aid. And who knows what the final German package will look like.

I fear the Greeks created a massive gaffe in their rejection of the EU proposals.

They aren't Irish, that's a given at this dire point, and cannot see the woods thru the trees I fear. The Irish bit the bullet back in 2011 and are back to GDP positive four years later.

In the grand scheme that is not a lot of suffering. Perhaps suffering is more ingrained in the Irish DNA. Austerity did not kill their way of life.

Austerity is merely another way of saying let's live within reasonable fiscal expectations and be responsible for our own economic reality.

That does not mean expect to retire at 50 and start drawing from the government pool of money. That does not mean outright reject simple taxes like a VAT tax on luxury goods that those who are economically able purchase. Half of the world governments or more have VAT's.

I could shift on endlessly to other areas of contention here, like why the German led EU (they have the surplus) would be leery of caving in to Greek concessions at this 11th hour 59th minute juncture. What would that signal to the other PIIGS regarding the threats and demands they could get away with?

I could wax on until tomorrow so better leave it at that. I have stated many times during this whole bad soap opera that my biggest fear is that it would go right where it is currently. Ugh. I have decent coin at risk.

So in a nutshell it is this right here IMO batski:

I would also be very interested to hear the input of two of the other horsemen here, Michael and stills, being as they are both employed in our own fiscal sector, and I value both their intellects and opinions highly.

(May be a bit late for that on how I could approach or hedge this differently, lol)