SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[GuTA]

Anyone who has been a part of large scale negotiations with partners that you'll have an ongoing relationship with knows that posturing is a huge part of the process. We saw it from Greece in the early stages and now from Germany and the EU. This is just as much about the outcome of the current negotiation as it is about maintaining strength and authority (or the perception thereof) long after this current issue passes. Add that a message wants to be sent not to just Greece but to all other members who could find themselves in similar circumstances, and that posturing gets put on steroids.

I'll be the first one standing here saying I'm wrong if there is a Grexit, but I am standing behind this being a bunch of noise that ends in both reform and debt relief. The Greeks acted like children at the onset. The EU couldn't just take the offer the Greeks made weeks later... even if nearly identical to the initial EU offer. They'd look week and without a backbone to all the potential defaulters out there. They have to rattle the sabers and puff their chests, but they'll accept terms at or near what is currently proposed.