Greene Concepts Inc (INKW)

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The FPPL Opportunity...

With great changes comes great opportunites... and I feel that over the next decade, the planet faces great changes in relation to Energy and Climate.

The opportunity for FPPL (and other US domestic energy companies) is to explore, develop, and supply USA energy needs from safe geographic locations (IE: in-land USA vs. the US Gulf Coast) in a safe geo-political locations/environments (IE: the USA vs. Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Chad, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc).

It is becoming increasingly obvious that it is in the long-term economic and national security interest of the USA to find and develop safe energy supplies domestically... as the risks/costs of obtaining energy supplies in OPEC, 3rd world countries, and the Middle East have increased significantly over the past several years, and it looks like those risks/costs will not diminish anytime soon ... and it is the costs/risks/spin-off's resulting from those insecure, costly, & volitile energy supplies that increase risks associated with the long-term health of the US economy and its national security... in fact, not long ago, President Bush even admitted America's addiction to Oil, and expressed the need for the USA to reduce it's exposure to foriegn energy supplies.



SO, JUST HOW RISKY/INSECURE ARE OPEC COUNTRIES?;

OPEC is made up of 11 countries... http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/2004/FileZ/mapbot.htm ... and I personally would classify all 11 OPEC countries as "high risk"... in fact, the US State Dept. currently has Travel Warnings issued against 7 out-of-the 11 OPEC countries... http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_1764.html ... you can view each of the 7 Travel Warnings here...

Current Travel Warnings by the US State Dept. on OPEC Countries...

Algeria Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_929.html

Indonesia Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_918.html

Iran Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_920.html

Iraq Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_921.html

Nigeria Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_928.html

Saudi Arabia Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_932.html

Venezuela Travel Warning - OPEC Member
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_918.html

With 7 out of the 11 OPEC countries having Travel Warnings issued against them by the US State dept. ... it doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to see that OPEC nations have serious stability problems.

But, OPEC countries aren't just politically unstable, some are also geographicaly unstable as well, for example; Indonesia has been plagued by Tsunami, multiple powerful earthquakes, and now Volcanic activity... Iran has also been plagued with strong Earthquake activity... and just one major natural disaster in the right location in just one of these OPEC countries could have an instant catastrophic effect on available world-wide energy supplies, sending Oil prices skyrocketing.

Also, there are deep social probelms facing most of the OPEC nations... which contribute to the instability of these nations which simply cannot be resolved quickly or easily, IE;

* The growing poverty gap between the rich and poor... which lead to increasing insecurity and violence... IE: Nigeria kidnapping and sabotage.

* Differences in Ideology which lead to low level warfare... IE: Saudi Arabia and Al Queada in-fighting.

* Resentment by locals of foriegn firms, who feel foriegn companies have unjustly en-riched themsleves at the expense of the locals... IE: Venezuela nationalization.

OPEC Summary:

While OPEC may offer lots of Oil supply... placing the security of any nations Oil supply with countries that can hardly even keep their own countries stable is sheer folly... a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and many weak links have developed over the past several years in regards to the foriegn Oil supply chain. The bottom line is; reliance on OPEC nations for energy supplies is putting the USA at an increasing amount of economic and national security risk... the proof is in the price...





DOMESTIC (USA) ENERGY SUPPLY

One way to mitigate the risks to unstable foriegn Oil supplies in the short-term is to develop North American Energy supplies... we are currently seeing a massive effort ($100 Billion in infrastructure development) to develop the Tar Sands in Alberta, Canada as a safe alternative supply to foriegn Oil... however, even when full capacity is reached, the Alberta Tar Sands will only be able to supply a fraction of global Oil demand.

Domestically, the USA faces a relatively new and unique energy problem... becuase, what use to be deemed as a safe US energy supply seems no longer safe... for example, the Gulf of Mexico, which has approx. 4,500 oil/gas platforms, as well as, energy refining & transportation infrastructure, have all been dealt major blows during the hurricane seasons of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Katrina & Rita).

While a very, very small handful of Scientists argue Global Warming is not a problem, by far, the vast majority of Scientists are of the opinion that Global Warming is a very real and very serious problem... in fact, former V.P. Al Gore says that there is almost "100 percent agreement" among scientists about the problem of Global Warming, however, a database search of newspaper and magazine articles shows that 57 percent question the fact of global warming, while 43 percent support it... these figures are the result, Gore says, of a "disinformation campaign" started in the 1990's by the energy industries to "reposition global warming as a debate."... saying it is the same type of disinformation strategy used for years by the defenders of tobacco.

Al Gore's movie "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" backed by scientifc data predicts Mankind has just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced... http://www.climatecrisis.net ... personally, I think we hit the "tipping point" 2 years ago when four CAT. 3 Hurricanes slammed into the shores of Florida.

Watch the trailer for Al Gore's movie "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" here;
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2078944470709189270&q=an+inconvenient+truth&pl=true


Global Warming and its resultant Hurricanes are extremely pertinent to Energy prices in the short-term becuase of the huge supply of Oil/Gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico... from the next graphic, you can see the Gulf Coast is starting to look/act like a giant Bowling Alley, the Hurricanes are acting like Bowling Balls, and the Oil/Gas Platforms are acting like Blowing Pins....


Source: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp

And now, because of the existing damage to the Gulf Coast energy complex from the past 2 years of Hurricanes, and the fact that the Gulf Coast has been operating under capacity for almost a year... just the arrival of a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will amplify America's energy problems, becuase, a CATEGORY 3 Hurricane requires the evacuation and shut-down of oil/gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico within the possible projected path... and in 2006, Scientists are projecting approx. five CATEGORY 3 (or stronger) Hurricanes.

Simply put... America is currently at the point where simply a Gulf Coast shut-down due to a Hurricane will magnify already stressed capacity/supply problems... the Hurricanes no longer have to damage energy infrastrucuture along the Gulf Coast to have a negative effect on energy prices... just a simple shut down in the Gulf Coast while a CATEGORY 3 (or higher) barrels through will stress/magnify an already constrained/damaged system.







And, while forecasters are saying the East Coast of the USA is overdue for a major Hurricane, the fact of the matter is, the Gulf of Mexico has a water tempuature problem, in that the isolated (or bay like) nature of the Gulf of Mexico creates perfect warm/soupy tempuatures for Hurricane generation...
as you can see from the next graphic that shows water surface tempuatures, the path from the Carribean into the Gulf Of Mexico are creating the perfect Hurricane breeding grounds that channel/path the Hurricanes straight into the Gulf Of Mexico energy complex.


The water tempuature map shows the increased vulnerability the Gulf of Mexico faces vs. the East Coast of the USA... the danger to the Gulf of Mexico will become even more appearent (for those who havent studied it in detail) to see towards the end of August as the surface water temps in the Gulf cook/simmer towards the 90 degree level... which will be very easy to see/understand from the water tempuature maps/charts by the mid/end of August.



ABOUT FPPL;

As far as FPPL goes, I'm not vouching for FPPL, I simply don't know enough about the company... however, what I will vouch for is the NEED FOR AMERICA TO DEVELOP DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLIES IN SAFE/STABLE LOCATIONS FOR IT'S SHORT, MID, AND LONG TERM ECONOMIC/NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS... and while I can't say that FPPL has the goods/management to help fullfill that very important need, the opportunity for FPPL is there, it just needs to step forward soon and starting filling those boots.

I will speculate somewhat about FPPL... what I've seen from the company is; a progressive path/work pattern from FPPL over the past approx. year claiming to have secured a number of Land leases... http://www.firstpetroleuminc.com/index.php?page=news_releases ... and given the last N.R. from the company... http://www.firstpetroleuminc.com/pdf/First_Petro_News-2006-04-07.pdf ... makes referecne to "First Petroleum’s goal being to now focus on potential drill programs and development of the most promising lease properties in its portfolio", my bet is that FPPL mgnmt. isnt about to abandon the last approx. year of time/money they've invested in the company and the leases... my guess is that sometime within the next several months (or sooner) we will see an update from the company that progressively follows the last N.R.