MCZ (.47) should put out another crappy money losing quarter after the close (as they guided for in last qtrs conf call), and the third quarter may not be all that much better. Nevertheless, since their secondary offering two and a half months back, I've been buyer...picking up 600,000 shares at an average cost of around .39/share.
On March 5, MCZ announced that they, along with Harmonix will be producing RB4, Rockband 4, the fourth generation of Rockband. MCZ will do what they did during the last RB3 production, making the controllers etc, only this time...as opposed to last, they are also co-publishers...so the they more income streams than when RB3 came out in the holiday season of 2011.
Back in 2010/11, MCZ made .16/share in the fourth quarter of '10 on $93 million in sales due to RB3, and they admitted they messed up on distribution...shipments came in late, so they shoulda made more.
MCZ has stated that they believe RB4 will be bigger than RB3. I don't see that happening..but if it does that would be incredible. They are already taking a large number of preorders. In any case I do believe that MCZ will have a very strong holiday season due to RB4. As long as forecasts are strong MCZ share price should move up, even if in the end sales turn out lighter than estimates. Of course if forecasts are poor...then foggetaboutit.
In 2010/11...due to RB3, MCZ moved from .41 in October '10 to a high of $2.39 in April '11...it traded over $2.00 for parts of Feb, March, April and May prior to its collapse.
Don't know if it'll get to those levels, but if things work out reasonably well, I anticipate MCZ trading at a double or over from these levels.
Anyway, MCZ will announce earnings after the close....they already guided for a pretty big loss...something over one million dollar loss (and could be more). But imo, its all about what MCZ says about the future, and the Holiday Season, and RB4. If MCZ states that Rock Band is looking very strong, and if the stock sells off due to crappy earnings, imo thats a strong buy opp.
best.
