Everybody seems to think that converting dept is the biggest worry. Note holders can convert which means they don't have to. It's a bit like regular stockholders trying to predict the weather a year from now (= the expiry date of CN). A CN holder can simply ride out the year and than evaluate what to do. The money back + 8% interest or conversion and an even bigger profit. Only good company results will seduce the CN holder into conversion IMO.
From a risk analysing point of view it also would make sense not to convert. In a situation of bancrupty the lenders are first in line (greenmachine2 post#3369). By converting the formerly CN holders go voluntarily back in line.
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