SCKT....some of my inventory #s updated for people to see what's happening.
I'll be the first person to admit that my inventory tracking numbers aren't necessarily the best predictor of a quarter. What's tough is that I only see between 55% and 68% of the total # of scanners sold overall (it's varied that much over the last 6 quarters). Also, scanners need to clear the whole sales channel before they are counted as revenue. As such, does the quarter end on the last day of the 3rd month or does it end 6-7 business days before? I don't know. What it does help me see is a bit of what's happening trend wise. Ex. Just like was said on the cc calls over the last year, I saw the "peak" in August last year, I saw the slowdown in early October because of the iPad issues followed by a strong 2nd half of the month, I saw the slowdown in the holidays, I saw where January and February were only "slightly above last year". All these comments were made by Kevin Mills at one point in the cc call and all of them showed up in my trend I track. I overestimated 4th Q numbers because I was too "hopeful" in things happening that I don't track. I don't do that so much anymore. It's why I've come to say I believe my numbers more than anything. If I can't track the trend at some level, then it's probably not happening.
23 weeks have expired this year so far. I'm going to list my numbers from Jan 1 to present week. None of these numbers have been adjusted at all (i.e. even if the most popular unit was sold out at Scansource and Bluestar for 3-4 days, I did not make any corrections or estimations on what was lost. These are the actual numbers I saw go out of inventory).
564
835
560
611
610
758
635
813
840
605
830
795
810 (last few days of March, start of April)
580 (the next 2 weeks had a lot of units out of stock, but I made no corrections for it)
573
916
739
888
564 (If the trend had continued, this would of tied August last year as "best 21 business days/month I've tracked" until this oddball number came up)
1070 (This is the best 1 week I ever tracked, at least at that point)
559 (Memorial Day holiday week)
1498
1104 ----newest # added on.
Obviously numbers mean nothing if it isn't put into perspective. To put into terms that are easier to understand, the most I've ever tracked in a single month (August 2014, 21 business days) = 3633 units for my estimate of $855.7K. If I do the last 21 days that have happened now = 4439 units for an estimate of $988.5K (this includes the really bad Memorial Day week). As such, what I'm tracking now is telling me, imo, that it's the highest rate the company has ever done.
What does it mean for 2Q? I don't know for sure. I don't track:
1. International sales. These have grown from 2Q 2014 of approx $500K to 1rst Q 2015 of $900K. Will this continue to $1.0-$1.1M in 2Q?
2. Sales in N.A. that include any medium to large order that is drop shipped (200 units or more), Amazon, direct sales from their website, sales that occur when my inventory tracking is sold out & hasn't been restocked yet, scanner accessories, warranty/service contracts. All together, this is quite a bit. It was in the $1.0 to $1.1M range last 2Q and 3Q when more medium to large orders occur. It was around $500K-$600K in 1rst Q when sales are slower overall.
I'm saying $4.8M and 7 cents/share because I try not to overestimate #1 and #2 anymore. There is lots of room here to add on revenue if things are going strong. 1 large order can move #2. The plus to revenue estimates is that the Somo is becoming meaningless. It was $480K in 1rst Q. The numbers I track are showing it down just a small amount. I'm still being even more conservative and saying it's just $400K in 2Q to be safe.
Overall, I like $4.8M as a conservative revenue estimate based on what I'm tracking and the latest trend. I like to think this is "worst case scenario".
Day dreaming: What becomes interesting is if the increasing trend of units sold per week continues into July and we get 13 weeks of #s like that. You then start to talk about a scanner revenue number that, with #1 and #2 added on top of it, becomes very exciting to what it would do to revenue and net income.
An interesting table for you all. This shows all scanner related revenue combined (from 10Qs) showing the progressive growth:
-------------------------- 2012 ---------- 2013 ------------ 2014 ---------- 2015
1rst Quarter ----- $1.51M ------- $2.43M ------- $2.91M ------- $3.48M
2nd Quarter ------ $1.59M ------- $2.64M ------- $3.73M ------- $4.4M (my conservative estimate)
3rd Quarter ------ $1.30M ------- $2.19M ------- $3.92M
4th Quarter ------ $1.55M ------- $2.49M ------- $3.10M
It shows that the growth may not be a rocketship, but it is progressing and should start to make an impact on the bottom line.
AI
