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Thursday, June 11, 2015 9:49:53 PM
If this thing is worth $10 in 30 days if Hank G wins.
Then we have a binary option that is either worth $0 or $7.50 in 30 days. Current $2.50 price is not part of this option. If probability is a 30% chance of winning.
30% x $7.50 = $2.25.
FNMA stock should go up $2.25 tomorrow.
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