Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[Jim Mullens]

K3, thanks. Re: .” I think you are kind of conservative is some parts though like Latin America”-

You’re probably correct as I believe TT stated in the Spring conference that TDMA conversions to CDMA would be increasing and D Grannis yesterday stated “leading carriers would be switching from TDMA to CDMA”. At best, this forecast is just an “educated” guess on my part and some areas could be high offsetting the conservative straight line LA estimate. My objective was to get something on paper looking at the regional areas and see where the growth might come from.

The developing countries of Asia with low penetration rates, where Qualcomm has wisely concentrated its efforts, represent huge future opportunities for CDMA. The U.S. CDMA market is only in the initial stages of converting to 1X as many of the richer feature handsets being sold in Korea and Japan (KDDI) have yet to appear at PCS and Verizon. The EV-DO upgrade cycle will continue to drive sales of more expensive handsets in Korea and Japan. And, as you say, the lower priced handsets with RadioOne ZIF technology will soon be hitting the market in LA, China, India, and other developing countries.

It’s difficult for me to understand why the “analyst” community has such limited vision as concerns Qualcomm’s future growth when they are reflecting growth for other companies in the wireless segment that appear less capable than Qualcomm of fully addressing the only area of wireless growth- 3G CDMA (all varieties).
……….EPS- .2002 2003……..2004….% INC ’03 vs ’04..…3-5 YR % Growth

TXN…………$0.22..….$0.35……..$0.68……..94%......................20%
MOT………….0.14…….0.20……….0.42……110%.....................14%
NOK………….0.81…….0.88……….0.99……..13%......................10%
RFMD………..0.06……(0.12)………0.10…….inf………………….25%
QCOM……….0.98…….1.40………..1.42……….1%.....................19%