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Re: mertto post# 174923

Friday, 06/02/2006 4:14:08 PM

Friday, June 02, 2006 4:14:08 PM

Post# of 286522
I think that's a good start, but I don't see how one can put the average rate of subscriber at $17. Generally, for whatever reason, your income from these things is close to the average of all your membership levels per subscriber.

That would put the average income for each subscriber around $12-13 per month.

This is also a unique enterprise in that they will make more money by people using the service less. I'm a new subscriber to this service and have never been a NFLX subscriber, but I'm assuming that most people are heavy on their requests at first and then taper off to some extent as the novelty wears off a little. In that case, shipping costs could be half of a subscriber's monthly fee for the first few months they're a member.

That leaves something like $6/per month/per subscriber to cover inventory updates, advertising, employee compensation, rent, computer upgrades, utilities and interest on loans, etc.

Because of all that, the membership level better be at a quarter million by first quarter 2007 with many more on the way if they are going to be close to break even.