Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[CaptWhizbang]

Something is up more than the norm. I agree!

If I look back to the crash in 2008, every stock faced difficulties and the economy of the world plummeted. The Long Term Chart shows CPST fought back with 3 higher highs run-ups to a new high of 2.60.

On March 18th, the day before the precipitous fall from 2.60, the board members were ecstatic about the run up. Even Bloggers were giving positive outlooks.

On March 19th, it was a different story

On March 19th, it was a different story!! Russia annexed the Crimea and went into the Ukraine and the US made sanctions that became more severe over time. The price plummeted.

The straight line down is a confirmed downward trend line. This suggests to me the move is Institutional Holders and Hedge Funds controlled.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPST&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16527478934&a=340943154&listNum=1

Of course retail selling at broken levels of support is a part of the panic, but the move has been too strong and manipulated for retail to really be significant except for the first jump out after 2.60 broke.

So who are the manipulators now, here at this low point? I believe a significant villain, at this point, can be blamed on Platinum Management. Platinum is a self acknowledged shorter.

Platinum was shorting heavily since 2013 and the fall in 2014 when it was a 5% owner of CPST shares. Platinum Investment Management Limited had vanished from the ranks of the 5% owners in the 2014 Proxy statements. They have since returned and again have been shorting, holding 5.8M shares now, imo.

Platinum is the only IH reducing shares significantly these last several quarters. Platinum reduced shares this quarter 8.8M shares. Where once they were 5% holders, they now hold 5.5M shares.

The other 5% holders are also gone:

Gilder, Gagnon, and Howe:
5% holder Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co. LLC also a self advertised aggressive shorter,is an investment management company that invests for both itself and its clients. As of July 1st, 2014, it had held 17,163,196 shares (5.21%). Today GGH are completely gone.

5% holder Vanguard Group vanished from the ranks of the 5% owners in 2014 Proxy statements.

While 5%s Gilder, Gagnon, and Howe and Platinum were self admitted aggressive shorters, Vanguard manages market funds and ETFs which makes their sell off in 2014 reasonable as well. They have been in and out with large funds over time. They will be back when the worm turns.

The 3 major 5% owners of CPST were shorting since 2.60!!! For the most part, several major shorters are gone, but a large number are still here and active.

CPST has always had large numbers of shorters. a few years ago, CPST had the most shorters on the Nasdaq at one point, remember?

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I posted the link showing CPST's growth data earlier today. I believe in that. CPST continues to grow and strengthen and will rise like it did after the 2008 crash, imo.
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=CPST®ion=usa&culture=en-US
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4Q Report and guidance will be very important, but several things to consider:

- Most of the CPST "Headwinds" seem to be calming down and their effect may be factored into the price.

-4Q summer is the prime shipping month for the Northern Hemisphere, followed by 1Q 2016. Lots of pr'd sales. How many sales in the back ground that are unannounced? So show me the money and tell me about good guidance!!!

-Analysts guidance, AT BEST:
Craig-Hallum calls for EBITDA this quarter:

Macro Headwinds In Russia Weigh On Top-Line, But
Otherwise Solid Quarter By Key Metrics
While market headwinds will present challenges in the near-term, we
reiterate our Buy rating and $1.25 price target with CPST targeting
much improved quarter over quarter results (including confidence
that it will ship much of its finished goods inventory during the
quarter), its expectation of reaching its long-awaited goal of adjusted
EBITDA break even in 4Q, key metrics continuing to improve, and its
attractive valuation at 1.5x EV/Sales.
Eric Stine
February 6, 2015
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Cowen and Company:Outperform:

Strong Fundamentals and Pipeline Diversification
Solid for ‘15
We remain upbeat on shares of CPST after hosting management
meetings. Despite headwinds in F3Q15 from Russia, oil prices, and a
strong USD, management has successfully expanded gross margin and
managed cash well, even given project delays. Some of our main
takeaways were the potential for further gross margin expansion as
warranty expenses come down, as well as increased clarity on the
pipeline shift toward CHP.
Jeffrey Osborne
February 27, 2015

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Ardour Capital: Accumulate:

Capstone Reports 3Q15 Results
Although 3Q15 sales missed our projections, significant improvement
in gross margin gives us comfort in CPST’s future profitability. Its
expansion in CHP markets during the quarter, growing backlog and
contract wins in Mexico led us to remain positive on its topline
performance in 2015. Nevertheless, macro headwinds put pressure on
the Company, but we expect recovery in the near future. Moreover,
we see the current level of share price offers a good opportunity to get
into the stock. Therefore, we keep our positive stance on the name.
JinMing Liu
February 6, 2015
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I am not looking for some "out in right field" 4Q disaster.

For all these reason, I am looking for CPST to have a much better 4Q numbers though eps estimates are(0.01). I do suspect the Annual Report numbers may have suffered because of the 2 last bad quarters that were effected in the fall. Analysts project a Annual (.06).

The 4Q will tell the story, and perhaps give incentive for an advance.

Many of the circumstance that have supressed CPST's price now seem to have been diminished greatly. The shorters have milked CPST dry and a good report could put them in the choke mode. A little bit of good news will go a long way now.

Time for everyone to start looking for profits that are long over due.
I will wait.

Always GLTY, Eastunder.....