Biotech Values

[ghmm]

FGEN:

I am actually long more for 3019 while realizing that today the majority of the value is in the anemia program. This is one stock (I hope) to hold on for many years when 3019's value in multiple fibrotic diseases aside from IPF could be realized.

Peter posted some things about them being unable to find the right patient population. Intermune did delay a while with Pirfenidone (and the molecule was around for decades) but part of that was they had Actimmune that they thought would work.

Intermune claimed in both CAPACITY and ASCEND that a small percentage of the patients actually drove the outcome. In ASCEND 46 (out of 278) Pirfenidone patients had > 10% decline vs. 88 (out of 277). So basically 70% of the placebo group had no impact on the primary end point. So I think FGEN doesn't have to be perfect in selecting the right patients. Additionally Pirfenidone has never been shown able to reverse fibrosis like FGEN claims was done in some patients. What I wonder if the company is trying to find just these patients which may be an impossible task with the current understanding of the disease? Just pure speculation on my part.