Need Board Review: Value Extrapolation:
Pls correct or modify anything you wish:
Not sure if I should use $50 per barrel as a conservative,well head value per barrel, or not, but I did.
My extrapolation is rather simple though perhaps way off the mark:
1. Our Northwest says it extracts= 2,450 barrels/day(PR info), now there are 232 days from May 11th to Dec 31st = that should yield 568,400 barrels x $50/barrel =
$28,420,000 for the NW New Divs Sales in balance of the yr since the merger
2. NDOL = 06 projection from 1 Jun 06 = 2.3 mil barrels = 2,300,000x$50= $115,000,000 in sales, add on SWAG plus the storage bus $20mil= $135,000,000 total for 06 for NDOL
3. **Grand Total =
$163,420,000 for 06 ** For total new entity
4. Say a very Approx SWAG of = $165M PROFITABLE Company
Then take 608,000,000 os shares = .271 cents in Sales per share x .05 after tax profits = .0135 per share after tax profits
Now what is the worth of the stock? .0135 into .50
Stock is selling for about 37 x earnings at .50
Just some very fast extrapolation here and verrrrrrry approximate but should be in the same ballpark imho
What do you all think?
***If I am close the stock is selling for 37 x 06 earnings and an even better multiple for 07 since it includes a full yr of both the new divs sales and NDOLs increase.
TIA for your thoughts, maybe mine are way off base, but it is how it seems to look now.
37x earnings for a growth stock is VG (pinkie espec.) in o7 do the math and it is even nicer!
john
