I'm suggesting we are still over supplied and have moved $10-$12 on nothing but air and geo-political pressures so far. Of course the 3.9 is part of the fundamental picture, my point was I'm not sure why anyone would be confused to see this retrace and slam through multiple technical levels. Will it happen? Who knows but there is nothing concrete to suggest that a $60+ level is sustainable for the time being. Generally as supply fills near capacity is the time to buy for an upward move but there is still a ton of oil out there. The 3.9 drop was the first since January so why have prices been going up in the last month with consistent (although they may be small) builds? I hold positions on both sides at different levels in hedge positions. Ultimately oil finds its legs but it's too early with forward contracts, Iran sanctions and other variables to say we are just retracing to fill gaps.
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