A lot of assumptions have to be made to come up with an estimate. Here are a few of the assumptions. There were two debentures eligible for conversion on April 5th. I am going to assume those were already converted and are included in the April 6th outstanding number of 1.4 billion. If those or other debentures had not already been converted the number could be even higher. The other big assumption in that the conversion price is calculated by taking 60% of the lowest 3 closing prices over a 10-25 day period prior to the conversion. I believe this to be consistent with other debentures issued by these same companies. Other companies freely disclosed this equation, ERHC did not. Given the recent high volume, this assumption appears to be correct.
Using those assumptions there would have only been only four more debentures converted since then. But those 4 converted under my conversion price scenario would equate to the issuance of 1,033,000,000 additional shares bringing the total to about 2.4 billion shares.
There is only one debenture remaining after that other than Chrome's. Of course this estimate doesn't include any interest or penalties some of which ERHC likely had to pay. Bottom line is there may barely be enough shares to squeak by and be able to pay the 3rd party debentures, but no way are there enough shares available to pay Chrome's debenture. I believe Chrome will force the reverse split for that reason.
As anyone can obviously see, Chrome will be far more interested in maximizing their ownership percentage rather than caring about the share price before they convert. If the truth be told, they probably want the share price even lower. That would maximize their number of shares and their ownership percentage thereby maximizing their potential profit going forward.
If Chrome/Offor is as good a businessman as some claim, he will maximize his potential future profit even if it is at the expense of other shareholders and the share price in the short run. To think otherwise is crazy.
