OK, this expansion leads to a few questions:
1. Although a 300mm wafer gives approximately twice the number of devices per wafer, the equipment footprint also gets larger so the number of lines will be reduced.
Anyone have an idea of what the net increase for fab 38 over fab 30 will be? (Or, what is the decrease in the line count?)
2. Also, fab 30 uses 90nm technology, the fab 38 conversion will launch at 65nm. The article seems to indicate the doubling of devices per wafer is a size issue only (confirmed by 3.14*(200mm/2)^^2 = 31400 sq.mm., vs. 3.14*(300mm/2)^^2 = 70650 sq.mm.). Since geometry goes down from 90nm to 65nm, how precisely does this affect the output? (One can assume similar mature yields and bin splits from fab 30 to fab 38 as a simplification, unless there is great evidence to the contrary.)
2. Fab 36 is currently producing 90nm technology, correct? Is fab 36 now planned to employ 90nm technology indefinitely?
3. A somewhat harder question: Will the added total device area of fab 38 permit AMD to increase the production of processor devices (increase market share) or will it be absorbed by trend towards multi-core devices, increased cache and greater integration of features on the die?
4. Of course, as Fab 30 is closed for conversion, Fab 36 will have to support 100% of AMD's output. This would seem to put the brakes on market share penetration into 2008, given the ever-growing complexity of devices. Can anyone show facts to dispute this?
The article seems to avoid these thorny issues. Now, AMD has stated a desire to surpass 30% market share over the next few years, although these predictions tend not to be serious coming from most semiconductor companies.
I am just not sure if this conversion will enable AMD to provide more product or just support newer product at current production levels. My gut feeling is that, in the end, AMD will have the capacity to fulfill 20 to 25% of the market, not much more than current levels. However, I don't have all the numbers so that is just a swag.
Let's add a fifth question:
5. What happens to the current 200mm/90nm equipment? Does AMD tranfer it to a production partner for the production of existing designs for low cost PCs and related products? That could be a big win.
