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Friday, May 01, 2015 12:09:17 PM
I have been a trader in ELTP since 2011.
I am not a day trader.
And very happy.
Relatively low PPS with relatively high volatility, up & down 15-20% on a regular basis. It's not how I run my show, but it is undeniable that if I had sold a quarter of my shares during the "run up" then I could own twice as many shares as I do now.
I enjoy and appreciate the charts that Sharpei and you post, especially the awesome labels you guys put on them, "Chart Analysis for Dummies" style. My biggest issue is that it seems kind of VooDoo to try to predict future events based on past events. Some of the success of technical analysis must be "self-fulfilling prophecy," meaning that to some extent, the charts behave the way they do because people believe they will. This is most obviously seen with "resistance" and "support." So if that's the case, then amateurs like me trying to trade would be likely to get burned by the MM's, who would be one step ahead of us, predicting our behavior. I would suspect that you not only pay close attention to the chart but also close attention to the players. Seems like with years of experience watching the same stock's Level II, you would learn the various MM's and have the ability to predict their behavior and stay one step ahead instead of behind.
So my question is this: playing the chart seems like trying to beat other retail investors who are not as good as you, but do you also play the Level II and try to beat the MM's at their game?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
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