Friday, May 01, 2015 1:58:34 AM
USD Triangle Failed.
I had originally charted the USD being in a 4th wave triangle which looked similar to the previous 4WT I've annotated on this chart. With the break 96, then it opens the door to the 92-94 region for the target for the c-wave of wave (4) which I believe I've mentioned a few times before. Many are still trying to short the dollar here and IMO the risk reward is no longer in the traders favor on the short side.
1. Even though the triangle failed it changes nothing, it's still a 4th wave but instead of a triangle it's an a-b-c with a slightly lower ending point. 4th waves are notorious for retracing to the 4th wave of the next higher/lower degree which is what we're seeing here. Usually that 4th wave will contain the retrace and if it does exceed the price bracket it's not by much.
2. So when I say it changes nothing I mean regardless of the 4th wave structure it's still only a 4th wave and we still have a 5th wave higher to come.
3. IMO the US Dollar likely has a date with the 103.50 region before we can even consider a top of any significance in place.
4. Even after the next 5th wave tops the Dollar still has two more 4-5 wave series before this set is complete.
I had originally charted the USD being in a 4th wave triangle which looked similar to the previous 4WT I've annotated on this chart. With the break 96, then it opens the door to the 92-94 region for the target for the c-wave of wave (4) which I believe I've mentioned a few times before. Many are still trying to short the dollar here and IMO the risk reward is no longer in the traders favor on the short side.
1. Even though the triangle failed it changes nothing, it's still a 4th wave but instead of a triangle it's an a-b-c with a slightly lower ending point. 4th waves are notorious for retracing to the 4th wave of the next higher/lower degree which is what we're seeing here. Usually that 4th wave will contain the retrace and if it does exceed the price bracket it's not by much.
2. So when I say it changes nothing I mean regardless of the 4th wave structure it's still only a 4th wave and we still have a 5th wave higher to come.
3. IMO the US Dollar likely has a date with the 103.50 region before we can even consider a top of any significance in place.
4. Even after the next 5th wave tops the Dollar still has two more 4-5 wave series before this set is complete.
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