That's the play on this one. If you look at the two agreements with MCET, on May 10, 2015 they will have paid in full the License Agreement:
License Agreement
Due Date Amount
3/10/2015 $250,000
4/10/2015 $125,000
5/10/2015 $125,000
Total $500,000
For a more accurate gauge of timing of when this could pop (I pray uplifting news does not occur first), look towards the Research Agreement:
Research Agreement
Due Date Amount
3/10/2015 $225,000
6/1/2015 $225,000
9/1/2015 $225,000
12/1/2015 $225,000
3/1/2016 $225,000
Total $1,125,000
Taken together, these tells me a few things:
1. OXIS is confident enough in the testing to date to go ahead and get licensing in order up front. For a penny stock like OXIS, dropping $500k for a well-tailored licensing agreement (and it is), tells me all signs point to a potentially game-changing protocol for the several rare, and sadly, very clever cancers they are trying to smoke.
2. The Research Agreement is where the rubber meets the road. Not only does XIE's technology have to work outside of computer modeling and lab testing, it needs to undergo continuous live fire exercises which will test not only the therapy itself, but also test MCET's delivery system.
As a result, Ben Franklin's posts which talk more about the latter part of 2015 for tangible news on the therapy itself make total sense. Research has only been ongoing for a little less than 3 months and 1 payment made. There are still payments due June 1, September 1 and December 1 of 2015, with the final payment due 3-1-16.
IMO, the sweet spot is probably the September-October 2015. This gives OXIS and MCET 7 months of empirical data and will know whether this is truly 'go' or 'no-go'.
The wildcard, I believe, is the EU's Adaptive Pathways program. If OXIS' therapies, bundled with MCET delivery system, makes substantial progress early on and get's tapped to join the Adaptive Pathways, then it's Ad Astra. Nothing less.
Lastly, there is a lone company (redacted in the filings) that has been given unfettered access to the research data. One. My guess is that it's a big Pharma, the kind with enough muscle to produce this medicine on a large scale. Both OXIS and MCET don't have this ability.
OXIS has everything lined up. The rocket is on the launch pad, the crew firmly strapped in, and it's T minus X @ Houston Control.
The $64,000 question is whether we'll have ignition and liftoff.
And that's why I am buying and holding.
