Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

INCY:

Good to catch you....I entered INCY, 9-20-2000, at $8.95. I see no reason to sell...any suggestions?

Good entry.

Fair to say INCY is overvalued right now. I think the following events / tentative outcomes are being factored into the share price:

1. MF / PV market being a bit larger and more amenable to penetration than they first considered.
2. Baricitinib approval.
3. Use of JAK inhibitors in pancreatic cancer.
4. Pipeline.
5. Buyout.

1 and 2 should be safe. I think 3 is unlikely and I don't expect positive outcomes from the JANUS trials. The pipeline is, as always, the wildcard. IDO1 combo data are not yet available, and they have a few new drugs entering phase I. They did mention the JAK/PI3Kd combo phase I study as revealing a signal, but we won't know how bright that signal is until ASCO.

3, 4 and 5 are where much of the excess premium is coming from. Although I accept that the stock is expensive, I'm content to hold and still do some occasional covered call selling. I will ride out the dips as I'm not much of a market timer and think the revenue stream from MF/PV is safe for the foreseeable future.