On one of the first slides "TranPham Metals" he shows Arcam with about 10% market share in metal systems, end of 2012, when there was about 1000 AM metal systems installed around the world.
The "TranPham Growth(2)" slide 198 metal systems sold in 2012 and 2013 had about 348 where Arcam delivered 15 and 25 systems which represented 7.5% and 7.2% respectively. 2014 numbers appear to have about 650 metal systems sold and we know Arcam delivered 35 systems which represents about 5.3% market share.
The slide also estimates metal systems to be sold in 2015 approx 900 2016 approx 1600 2017 approx 2800 2018 approx 4800
If Arcam can keep their market share at about 5%, then we can expect number of systems sold to be: 2015 = 45 2016 = 80 2017 = 140 2018 = 240
Slide 19 Overall 3D Revenues are expected to be around $8B in 2018 and about 51% (see top of slide 22) of that will be for the metal AM market.
My model is showing Arcam should have Revenues of about $250 million (US dollars) factoring in the above numbers in 2018 and includes AP&C and DiSanto. Anyone else crunch any numbers?
I'm hoping Arcam's market share is actually higher than 5%, but seems reasonable based on past metal systems installed.
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