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Re: BStripe post# 22932

Thursday, 04/23/2015 10:28:32 PM

Thursday, April 23, 2015 10:28:32 PM

Post# of 24848

CHP, you've been very quiet lately. I'd love to know your take on the late 10K.


Honestly, it is something that looks worse than it actually is.

OTC's and Pinkies are late more than folks realize. Often times it is simply one of the myriad of reasons I had identified in some of my recent posts on this topic. SCRC went thru staggering growth in its numbers last year and the auditors (per SCRC's own PR) clearly found some results of their audit procedures that they were not expecting that is causing them to have to perform additional and/or alternate procedures.

Fundamentally, it is a minor issue. It really is. BUT, the reason I consider it minor is because there is nothing about SCRC's fundamentals that justify an "investment" thesis at this time. I have stated numerous times previously that as 2014 progressed, SCRC's fundamentals WERE improving rapidly to the point where an "investment" thesis was becoming warranted to complement the "trading" thesis for SCRC... ...HOWEVER, two pieces of news came out so far in 2015 that effectively eliminated the basis for any further consideration of an "investment" thesis for SCRC:

(1)
The NT filing that gave highlights of Q4'14 performance and showed that expenses continued to spiral even more out of control to the point where record Q4'14 approved orders still weren't enough to turn a profit.

(2)
The news that CVS/Caremark, the 2nd largest pharmacy benefits manager in the US, terminated its agreement with Main Ave effective 3/13/15, and that based on MAR approved orders, there is serious question as to the magnitude of revenues that Main Ave will lose as a result of this.

So... ...because of the fact that I no longer consider SCRC "investment-worthy" but simply "trade-worthy" at this time, fundamental issues such as the impact of the 10K being late are relatively insignificant to me because any impact/consequences of it are nothing more than another potential piece of bad news that comprises the total larger pool of both good and bad news (i.e. catalysts, both positive and negative) that could move the sp significantly in either direction at any time.

For example, if the SEC suspends SCRC's registration for being too late with its 10K filing, then SCRC gets banished to the grey market. That would obviously be bad news.

But if APR-2015 approved orders gets announced to be something much higher than anyone could have anticipated based upon MAR's number, then that would be good news that IMO would outweigh the fact that SCRC is on the greys.

The list goes on in both columns, as the above two examples are simply the tip of the iceberg.

There are LOTS of potential catalysts that can hit at any time, both positive and negative. That's why it's ALWAYS been critical w/SCRC to periodically take profits, be willing to move off to the sidelines for periods of time and then jump back in, etc. It's no different than playing roulette and always betting on red. Over time, there will be a smattering of both red and black and a gambler who insists on staying in and playing every single spin will ultimately either find themselves at a standstill or slowly bleeding to death as the house vig eats you up. There is really nothing to gain but much to lose by simply "buying/adding/holding" in an environment where a relatively equal number of positive and negative catalysts can hit at any time.

But specifically re: the 10K being late, although I am aware that being banished to the greys is something that generally occurs only if (1) the SEC initiates litigation against the company because it suspects fraud or other financial wrongdoing by the company, OR (2) financials are not filed, I personally do not know what the timeline is for banishment due to late filing. I know that banishment to the greys can be sudden and unannounced in the event of SEC-initiated litigation, but I have zero familiarity with what the procedures are for when potential banishment is due to the lack of filing financials. If anyone can link to regulatory literature on this, that would be much appreciated by all here -- but in the absence of knowing for sure, as I stated above, it is simply just another potential risk amongst the universe of other potential positive and negative catalysts out there right now...

Not sure if this helps or even answers your question, but it is just my own personal thoughts at this time, so take it FWIW...

GLTU...