Observing trading today, I am left wondering what people's expectations might have been regarding the bird flu news. What really was relayed to us today that would explain 8 1/2 million shares traded and pps rising a dime? Some retrospective thoughts.
1. PPHM is indeed proceeding with preliminary trials that are reinforcing to their bavituximab business plan. PPHM had said they were looking for a "go, no go" decision on bird flu trials this fall. If repeat dosing studies show safety for the Hep C trial followup scheduled to start in June, giving a month for dosing and 90 days to track patients brings PPHM to the October time frame with the sort of human safety data they should need to give a green light for other studies to proceed. I suppose that would make timing of a go, no go decision announcement before Thanksgiving reasonable if trials proceed in June, as announced. What will pps do over the summer? Where will PPHM get funding to bridge over another six months?
2. PPHM had noted in 2005 how Avid was doing some production for in house, PPHM use. It would seem that PPHM produced enough Bavituximab to support whatever trials may be underway. So, how much Avid production for other companies needs to be set aside to keep PPHM supplies of bavituximab on the shelf to support planned trials? None? Millions in lost revenue? Since we don't know, the opportunity cost is undefined and a negative to share price.
3. The Bird flu testing using incubation with eggs sounds like very basic, set up research-- a screening test. What would normally follow on from that, in terms of animal studies etc.? Or is that what the go, no go decision determines?
4. PPHM said there are other trials that can proceed with demonstration of repeat dose safety data. So what else has been in trials that might surprise us, like the bird flu announcement (don't know) and what does PPHM have planned going forward (AIDS?)?
5. What occurred with today's news that would translate to increased shareholder value? PPHM is now at a much higher probability of having an effective bird flu pandemic treatment in time for, at the absolute earliest?, a prospective 2007 Avian flu outbreak.
6. PPHM and bavituximab did not get mentioned on an MSNBC feature on bird flu this morning that was likely finished in preparation before this morning's surprise PPHM announcement of the bird flue study results. Will it get mentioned in future avian flu features, prepared post PPHM news? If not, what does bavituximab need to demonstrate to garner that sort of standing?
It seems to me that PPHM got a boost of shareholder value that went into more foundation building. The foundation will be further bolstered with anannouncement like commencement of the repeat dosing trials for Hep C. A stronger foundation allows for a bigger staircase to be built, but today's news only tells us that a staircase is more likely to be built. This was not the step one that would translate to $$$ for PPHM pps enhancement, IMO. Announcements that can be linked to revenues with a degree of certainty appear to still be a ways off, but I can see pps slowiy climbing as PPHM stays on plan.
I am a bit surprised that PPHM preserved the confidentiality of their pending news. There was not much in prenews pps movement. I also found it very transparent on the RB board as to who is bashing the stock for gain. Just look at yesterday's posts compared to today's news. Hmmmm- pretty pathetic. Glad Investors Hub is here, LOL.
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
AI
