Risk And Reward With Xinyuan Real Estate
Apr. 14, 2015 7:30 AM ET | About: Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN)
Here's a stock that has been on a roller coaster in the last 4 years, but one that could become a rocket any time now. As far as being a Ben Graham net current asset trade, its margin of safety is extremely high.
As of the latest quarterly statement, Xinyuan’s (NYSE:XIN) balance sheet shows a net current asset value of $782 million. Compared to the market capitalization of $242 million, that presents explosive upside potential. Especially, given that they are one of the few companies that are net current asset positive and are also profitable. This is not a company that many look at from a growth perspective, because despite the fact that revenue and income both more than doubled from 5 years ago, the stock is trading at about the same (or even lower) price, and shareholders now receive an annual dividend payment of 6.23%.
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Of course, the biggest factor for many of these Chinese companies has been fraud. Yet, with Xinyuan, I think it’s fair to say that the company is real and the books are correct. I was recently in New York and it reminded me of the Williamsburg project the company has in Brooklyn, which has been selling condos for around $1,100 a square foot.
The project (Oosten) has a total of 400,000 square feet, which means total sales from the project are likely to exceed $400 million. The cost is to be less than $250 million, so when expenses and interest are taken out, XIN could add more than $100 million to its cash position. That alone is worth close to one half (½) of the current market capitalization.
Do they have inventory piling up? Yes, over 2,000 active projects are still unsold. But so what? It’s not like a used car that’s depreciating as it sits on the lot and gets older. If anything, the value of the company’s holdings will be getting more valuable.
Fourth quarter revenues of $362 million, a 121% increase from third quarter of 2014; contract sales of $402 million, which is a 140% increase from the third quarter of 2014. The annual comparisons show the company surviving the downturn in the Chinese market with revenues up 2.5% to $920 million in 2014; floor area sales down 5.5% to 629,000 square meters; and net income down 61% from $126 million in 2013 to $48 million in 2014. For me this is not a big deal as long as they are adding to Book Value, which XIN seems to be doing very well.
In fact, the book value is close to $13 per share. With the Brooklyn project coming to an end and sold by next year, XIN could tack on another $1 on its book value.
The stock sits at $3.20. It’s a bargain. The risk would be if the company is truly a fraud; I don’t believe that’s the case. The reward is for a patient investor to see 100% gains in the next few years, or sooner.
Disclosure: No positions Risk And Reward With Xinyuan Real Estate