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Tuesday, May 23, 2006 5:18:57 PM
Here is the formula I like to use to define valuation:
BIGN = Book Value + Net Income (say 10% of revenues) + Potential
This seems to work pretty good for pennystocks. If nothing else it may be on the conservative side. Based on the last unaudited filing the company reported $855,382 shareholder value (assets minus liabilities). That's about $0.0028 per share.
Revenues that I will include right now would only be the Grimes wells and some Hydroslotting. For now let's just use Grimes 1 at 400-450 Mcf and Grimes 2 at 1000-1450 Mcf. I'll use $7 per Mcf for these calculations. I figure that's about $0.0016 EPS if we assume 10% of revenues as income.
Now the Potential section is where the big swag comes in. The only potential I am confident to include right now would be Grime 3, 4 and 5 since we know about what to expect from the flow rate. Also, I'll assume about one well slotted a month and figure that as additional revenue at $200,000 a pop but BIGN only has the rights to 50% of that. For the Grimes wells I swagged about $0.001 EPS per well and for the Hydroslotting I figures a slightly higher 30% margin but only 12 wells slotted over the next year. I came up with about $0.0012 EPS from that.
Tally that up and I came up with $0.0028 (book value) + $0.0016 (grimes 1 and 2) + $0.0012 (hydroslotting) + $0.003 (grimes 3, 4 and 5) = $0.0086 EPS.
According to Yahoo this industry averages just over a 10 P/E. So that means BIGN should be trading at a minimum of $0.086 right now.
These calculations do not factor in WWNG because I had no flow rates to go off of any there is no proof yet that revenue is due out right away. I did not calculate the upcoming letter of intent for the TX company. Both of these are HUGE, but for simplicity I left them out. One could easily argue that these two could double my other figures but I'll keep them seperate for now.
Based on this valuation and the news from today I think we will see a small gap up tomorrow morning and continual growth through this week to over $0.05 and maybe on to $0.06. Keep an eye on NG prices and the WWNG operations as they could adjust these figures in either direction. Hopefully we get more details on the TX deal soon so we can factor that in more.
Good Luck.
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