1998 all over again
I have noticed that in the past, notably during the bull market before March, 2000, that when Apple was expected to roll out a new product, AAPL often ran up into that expected announcement, and then often sold off once that announcement was made. Well, here in mid-2003 I think Apple is on the verge of entering another cycle of expansion, and I expect nothing different from its stock performance than what it experienced the last time one of these cycles got going (mid-1998, for those keeping track, though the stock price started rising in anticipation of market share growth then, too).
The rumors are that Apple will have something new to show the computing universe on Monday, or perhaps more than one thing, and even that it might start shipping immediately. Well, we're seeing an AAPL runup now. And I don't think it's entirely due to yesterday's Needham upgrade, or at least not entirely due to that upgrade.
If I assume that we're going to see some new product Monday, specifically a G5-based product (G5 = PowerPC 970), then I think one of two things could happen:
1. AAPL could get a big batch of analyst upgrades and run like heck up. Maybe all the way to $25
2. AAPL could sell off on the news, regardless of whatever analysts might do, maybe all the way down to $16 if the broader market is feeling selling pressure at the same time.
For myself, I think we're going to see selling pressure by the time that announcement is made, assuming it is made at all. (If all these rumors are just so much botchgarble and no announcement is made at all, I certainly do expect selling pressure, yes indeedy.) This might be offset by some analyst upgrades, but I think it would take 2-3 such upgrades to maintain AAPL in the neighborhood of $19. More upgrades mean the price goes up. Fewer (or no) upgrades means the stock goes down.
That's what I think.
Buona fortuna
