ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY)

[eric4x]

UVXY will go higher than today's price.*

I am expecting a rise of about 50% from the bottom, which would now be about $22. In December, there was a gain of about 83% from the bottom.*

In my previous analysis, I predicted a high of $25, based on a higher bottom price. As the price drops, of course, the percentage rise "above the bottom" will have to lead to a lower high.*

How low it goes before shooting up again depends on what is driving the market.*

If the price went down one-third, and then back up again one-half, we would see 15 down to 10, and then back up to 15. Does anyone expect to see 10 before 20?*

The VIX number is currently around 13. That is low enough to be a bottom for UVXY, but the VIX number could still drop to the range of around 11.*

The VIX to VXV ratio is around 0.8, which is also low enough to be a bottom for UVXY. But of course, this ratio could still go lower.*

If you see the VIX to VXV ratio near the 1.0 point, and the VIX number reaching about 20, then it's about time to sell the UVXY, (for a swing-trader), no matter where the price is.*

If you are in a position to do some proper day-trading, then everything is different. A day-trader could buy UVXY near the top, when the swing-traders should be selling. The price can still go up from there, but will drop quickly, so it only works for very fast and close-watched trading.*

The other possibility for a fast day-trader would be to sell the UVXY, however low it is currently, IF you could buy back quickly at an even lower price. Then at least you would reduce the potential loss.*

The rule seems to be that if I hold onto UVXY, it goes down; but if I sell it, it goes up. I am trying to change that pattern.*

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